Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest say Bitcoin’s long-running four-year pattern could lose its grip as major financial players buy and hold more of its supply, a shift that could tame price swings and change the way investors plan ahead.
Institutional buying changes the markets
According to Wood, large companies and spot ETFs are slowly holding on to coins that used to flow in and out of retail hands. In the most recent halving, on April 20, 2024, the reward for miners was reduced to 3,125 BTC.
On a daily basis, that reduction translated to approximately 450 Bitcoin drop of supply per day, a figure some analysts call small compared to the trillions attributed to the market’s value and the billions going into ETFs.
Ark has also been active, buying shares in Coinbase, Circle, and its own Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), signaling that institutional demand is more than a rumor.
Cycle rules are questioned
Based on reports from banks and crypto companies, there are the well-known cycle increases halves followed by deep crashes of 75-90% – is up for debate.
Standard Chartered cut its 2025 price forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, arguing ETF The inflow weakens the price boost from the halving.
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju have said that institutional flows have changed or even erased the classic rhythm.
Markets peaked around $122,000 in July, and some analysts now say future declines may be shallower, between 25% and 40%, rather than the extreme collapses we’ve seen before.
The market structure still shows old patterns
Not all evidence points to a completed cycle. Reports published by on-chain analytics companies like Glassnode show behavior among long-term holders that resembles up-and-down swings from the past.
According to that study, demand from late-cycle buyers has weakened in a way that mirrors previous years. Halvings are said to remain meaningful breaks within a longer trend, and not irrelevant events.
Macro observers add that broader economic forces – interest rates, fiat liquidity and institutional appetite – are becoming increasingly important in the price story.
Investors should expect longer moves more often, with rallies stretching over more months and volatility generally lower, analysts say.
Wood suggested that volatility is decreasing and that markets have already bottomed out a few weeks earlier.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView