Bitcoin has been that way for more than a decade [BTC] The price was driven by the four-year halving cycle, which led to major bull runs in 2013, 2017 and 2021, each followed by sharp corrections.
However, institutional finance is sending signals that this cycle-driven era may be coming to an end.
Is Now the End of a Four-Year BTC Cycle?
Bernstein, the global research and brokerage firm, has declared that the traditional crypto cycle is dead.
The company attributes this to new structural demand driven by Spot Bitcoin ETFs and unprecedented institutional inflows, which are replacing the old retail-driven, halving-oriented volatility.
That’s why Bernstein now predicts an “elongated bull market,” targeting a Bitcoin price of $150,000 by 2026.
If noted by VanEck’s Matthew Sigel, this view holds even after the recent market correction, which Bernstein dismisses as a “shallow consolidation” within a stronger, institutionalized trend.
Sigel said:
“We believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern and is now in an extended bull cycle, with more persistent institutional buying offsetting retail panic selling.”
This shift suggests that Bitcoin is evolving into a macro asset, with its future determined less by programmatic scarcity and more by consistent demand on Wall Street.
What role does BTC ETF play in this shift?
The strongest evidence for this shift comes from the Spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
Sigel highlighted that during a 30% correction, ETF outflows remained below 5% of total assets. This resilience shows that new institutional investors are behaving as long-term allocators, rather than short-term debt speculators.
Because of this stable behavior, Bernstein has expanded his time horizon and increased his goals.
The company now expects continued upside over several years, with Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, $200,000 in 2027 and a long-term target of $1 million in 2033.
This vision breaks with the old four-year cycle story. Instead, recent dips are being redefined as superficial consolidations within a broader structural uptrend.
What’s more?
However, the current market provides a harsh counterbalance to Bernstein’s thesis, as evidenced by AMBCrypto’s recent analysis.
Extreme volatility, low liquidity and a series of lower highs since mid-November indicate increasing tension.
With the price of BTC dipping to $90,179.65 after a 1.7% decline, at the time of writing, the market is struggling to keep its composure, contradicting analysts’ argument that the old market structure is broken.
On-chain metrics, including negative net realized gain/loss, show that long-term holders are selling at a loss. The market has seen $500 million in leverage liquidations, in addition to a sharp drop in Open Interest.
Together, these signals suggest that the current volatility may not be random, but rather deliberately designed.
This has fueled speculation that smart money could manipulate prices, flushing out leveraged traders to accumulate assets at lower levels.
Against this backdrop, investors are left with a pressing question: Will Bernstein’s projected institutional demand stabilize assets, or is the current price swings simply a calculated bear trap set by whales?
Final thoughts
- Bernstein’s view of an “elongated bull cycle” suggests that Bitcoin can now rise steadily instead of peaking and crashing.
- The minimal outflows from ETFs during a 30% correction underline the rise of long-term, conviction-based institutional holders.