Cardano (ADA) is once again facing choppy market conditions as its price hovers near one-year lows, but renewed optimism is growing ahead of the highly anticipated Midnight launch in December.
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Despite continued criticism of declining network usage and shrinking DeFi liquidity, new technical signals and emerging ecosystem catalysts suggest that the blockchain may be preparing for a recovery phase by the end of the year.
ADA's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ADAUSD on Tradingview
ADA slumps as liquidity and sentiment weaken
Cardano (ADA) is trading around $0.41, marking a steep 70% decline from its peak of around $1.2 in December 2024, making the token among the weakest performers during the last market pullback.
Total value locked has fallen 36% in 30 days to $186 million, while stablecoin liquidity is under $40 million, far behind competitors like Monad, which approached $100 million in TVL shortly after launch.
The ‘ghost chain’ story resurfaced this week after network outages sparked jokes about Cardano’s low activity. Even Nansen’s CEO predicted that ADA could disappear from the top 20 as rivals gain traction in the real world, gaming and large-scale DeFi.
Yet founder Charles Hoskinson insists the gloomy sentiment does not reflect what is to come. In a recent update, he highlighted that Midnight, Cardano’s privacy-focused sidechain launched in December, is backed by major developer partnerships that are expected to reinvigorate the ecosystem.
Technical structure points to a potential relief rally
Despite bearish pressure, ADA’s chart is showing signs of stabilization. The token forms a falling wedge pattern, historically a bullish reversal indicator. The RSI is at 30, indicating oversold conditions, while derivatives financing has turned positive, indicating traders are positioning themselves to the upside.
The key resistance levels are at $0.49 and $0.5097, where a breakout could push the price towards $0.50-$0.61. However, analysts warn that failure to hold the $0.39–$0.40 support range could expose ADA to a deeper downside towards $0.277, the August 2023 low.
Midnight launch will be Cardano’s make-or-break catalyst
With DeFi activity declining and market confidence fragile, the rollout will begin in December Midnight is emerging as the pivotal moment for Cardano’s 2025 prospects. Success could trigger a meaningful recovery in TVL and development activity, figures that merchants are increasingly relying on as evidence of true adoption.
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For now, ADA remains in consolidation mode, but the convergence of oversold tech, whale accumulation, and ecosystem upgrades sets the stage for a potential year-end upside if Cardano can finally turn anticipation into measurable growth across the chain.
Cover image of ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview