Key Takeaways
Is Ethereum Still Struggling With Bitcoin?
Ethereum underperformed Bitcoin in the fourth quarter, down 18% versus BTC’s 9.41%, and the ETH/BTC ratio fell 7%, highlighting weaker capital flows.
Are There Bullish Signs for ETH?
Whales taking in ETH, BTC.D resisting, and deeper derivatives clearing all point to ETH paving the way for a potential momentum flip in the fourth quarter.
Ethereum [ETH] fights against Bitcoin [BTC].
Over the past two weeks, ETH’s moves have been twice as strong as BTC’s. Looking at the fourth quarter is the divergence is clear: Bitcoin has cut losses to 9.41%, while Ethereum is down 18%.
The ETH/BTC ratio also fell 7% this week, breaking below the sideways range of around 0.36 held through October. Simply put, capital flow into Ethereum is weaker, with investors still favoring BTC over ETH at the moment.
Source: TradingView (ETH/BTC)
On the bullish side, however, this breakdown has changed the directional bias.
Simply put, breaking the ETH/BTC ratio of 0.36 triggered another sell-off of ETH vs. BTC, paving the way for renewed trend clarity in the pair. In the meantime, BTC dominance Reaching resistance at 61% strengthens the flow back into altcoins.
In this context, an Ethereum price drop to $3k acts as a bullish low. If bulls intervene, it will pave the way for capital rotation into select altcoins, while BTC will look riskier. It looks like ETH traders are already playing this out.
Ethereum is gaining ground as bullish catalysts align
A mix of bullish triggers shows that Ethereum may be catching up.
For starters, ETH drops to a multi-month low of $3k on November 4, synchronized with creating whales 394,682 ETH for $1.37 billion, which puts their cost base around $3,488 per coin.
That said, the biggest catalyst is in derivatives. Since the mid-October crash, Ethereum Open Interest has fallen by $30 billion, compared to BTC’s $24 billion, signaling deeper leverage for ETH.
Source: Coinglass
In short, Ethereum’s tailwind against BTC in the fourth quarter has not yet turned bearish.
Now that the whales have hit the dip, ETH/BTC has bottomed, BTC.D has resistance, and ETH has undergone a clean flush, we are seeing a stack of early bullish signals that indicate Ethereum is in an accumulation phase.
If this holds, ETH could still reverse momentum in the fourth quarter, breaking the streak of lower quarterly gains versus BTC, with $3k acting as a solid rebound zone, potentially paving the way for an Ethereum rebound versus Bitcoin.