Dogecoin just endured a sharp decline over the weekend, fell below $0.20 after failing to extend the early October recovery. This drop was enough wipe out many weeks steady profits and a jolt to retail sentiment. However, despite the volatility, the monthly chart is still bullish. Despite the weekend crash, Dogecoin is well above its 25-month moving average and trading near the same structural zone that preceded previous parabolic rallies.
This setup caught the attention of a technical analyst on
Historical structure reappears on Dogecoin map
According to to the analyst’s long-term monthly chart, Dogecoin has repeatedly entered explosive bull runs after exhibiting three key technical conditions: a breakout from a long-term downtrend, sustained trading above the 25MA, and a successful retest phase that confirms its structural strength. Each of these setups has led to massive price increases, most notably the 36,000% surge that catapulted DOGE from a fraction of a cent to its all-time high in May 2021 of $0.7316.
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As shown in the graph below, same thing technical circumstances are playing out again. The descending trendline that had capped Dogecoin’s growth since mid-2021 has already been broken and the price is well positioned above the 25MA. The ongoing consolidation represents the retest phase, the same period that preceded the last two major parabolic runs in 2017 and 2021.
Another important observation highlighted by the analyst is that every historical outbreak was preceded by what is called the NGMI (Not Gonna Make It) phase. This is usually the case when Dogecoin trades sideways or drops slightly after breaking the multi-month downward trendline.
Will history repeat itself for DOGE?
As it stands now, Dogecoin’s monthly price pattern is now moving around this downtrend line again, which was broken at the end of 2024. The latest candlestick wick, which was created with Dogecoin’s recent drop to $0.18, saw this trendline re-reached very briefly.
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However, if Dogecoin’s recurring structural pattern continues to play out as before, it could precede the current downtrend phase. another strong rally. The technical alignment, a combination of price stability above the 25MA, the break of a long-term downtrend and the confirmation of the retest, means that momentum is still quietly building beneath the surface.
While no map can guarantee a repeat of 2021 magnitude, EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL technical outlook makes a convincing argument that Dogecoin’s larger bullish cycle is still intact.
At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.201, down 5.2% and 23% in the past 24 hours and seven days, respectively.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com