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The cryptomarkt slid into a detention pattern during the week, with a price promotion that increasingly tied to one catalyst: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome’s comments on the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. “This will be the only big event,” said analyst Josh Olszewicz in his Macro Monday stream of August 18. “Everyone is going to look at this, talk about it, analyze this … what Jay says [on Friday]”Will probably expectations and risky sentiment swing rate. The symposium runs on 21-23 August 2025 in Wyoming, under the theme” Labor markets in transition: demography, productivity and macro-economic policy “, a background almost tailor-made for clarifying the Fed’s Path in the autumn.
Will JPow shock the crypto market?
Olszewicz frame the setup as seasonal and structurally difficult for crypto. Commitment of traders (COT) Positioning on CME shows commercials – the cohort that he regards as “normally the same for every market historically” – not convincingly long, while the basic trade remains attractive and open interest has crawled higher over CME Futures and options, including Solana. That mix, he argued, limits the upward followers in the absence of a macro spark. “It is becoming more difficult to push higher based on what we have seen historically and based on these futures positioning data,” he said, adding that “when commercials are long, the price does better.”
Flows underline the Cross Current. He made an ‘almost $ 4 billion’ net week before crypto-etp’s most in the US made it most in the US with Ethereum that noted ‘an all-time high-week current’, while the inlet of Bitcoin looked ‘modest’ through comparison and Solana and XRP. Yet he warned that even healthy fund flows do not delete tactically heavy positioning and the lack of a clear macro impulse for Powell.
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Micro strategy Change stock policyAs a result of which the issue of the market is possible under a 2.5 × mnav premium, has also become a talk point in the pre-Jackson Hole Chop. Olszewicz noted that the BTC accumulation of MSTR “has been properly delayed”, and that the MNAV premium of the share becomes active arbitration by traders “Korte MSTR, long place [BTC]”Furthermore, damping momentum when the underlying currency is direction. In his opinion,” when the underlying moment is momentumless, there is no reason to look for leverage “, which helps explain why MSTR” will have more difficult to do it well until BTC trends or company accumulation replaces again.
Technically, he described the short term as ‘a gigantic, gigantic nothing hamburger’. For Bitcoin he pointed to a $ 120,000 – $ 122,000 zone as the threshold for a cleaner long setup, and for micro strategy he marked “everything above $ 410, and it’s time”, while admitting that the momentum of the shares slides away faster and faster “. He saw little about crypto shares that long ‘shouted’: exchanges and brokers looked momentumless on his cloud models; The recent power of miners was more due to AI/HPC stories than to Crypto Beta; And even the prominent ETH-linked shares that have been rising since spring now, now show “record volumes”, but a “more neutral” low-time afframe image. “There is no reason to force transactions if they are not there,” he said.
How will financial markets react?
The macro -catch rails that he will view in Powell’s speech are known to crypto traders. On the American dollar index he constantly wants “COP neutral” and firm under the Daily Cloud – “You don’t want this above 99, 100” – because a reviving DXY “would be very careful with Longs on BTC.” At rates, the 10-year-old treasury “sustainably lower than 4.25” would be a headwind, while “more than 5% everyone is in trouble.” He also marked the sanitary dynamics: the drawing from reverse repos to zero and the simultaneous filling of the general account of the treasury – streams that could yield, but that in the extreme can push the Fed to a policy reaction if liquidity stresses would pop up.
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However, all roads lead back to Powell. From Tuesday, wider markets tended to an interest rate reduction in September, with tools implied by Futures such as CME’s Fedwatch that reflects a high chance of a movement of 25 BPS. “We see 83% for a reduction during the next meeting,” said Olszewicz about the starting point of the market, adding that if the expectations “shift to no cut, I would expect the markets to be very angry,” while a surprise 50 BPS “is probably unlikely” but would be crushed “in a bullish, happy way”.
For now, Olszewicz is satisfied to wait. “I would like to wait to see what this looks like in October. I don’t expect anything in September,” he said, in accordance with his vision that Cryptos’s Q3 seesion bondage is a headwind and that meaningful trend signals often appear in Q4 again.
Between now and then, the tone of the chairman of inflation progress, cooling of the labor market and the possibility of preventive relaxation will determine whether this week’s “Nothing Burger” will be the basis for a new leg higher or a reminder that Macro still has the last word at the top of the risk-scade of crypto. And with the explicit focus of Jackson Hole on labor markets this year, Powell’s Framing can do more than septemans; It could set how investors think about the entire policy path in 2026.
At the time of the press, the total crypto market hairstyle was $ 3.84 trillion.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com