Major Banks Increase Oil Price Forecasts Due to Middle East Shipping Disruptions
Major banks are adjusting their Brent crude oil price forecasts in light of ongoing shipping disruptions in the Middle East. The situation in the region has led to increased uncertainty and volatility in the oil market.
Commerzbank, based in Frankfurt, has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $85 per barrel, up from $75. This adjustment reflects the bank’s assessment of the prolonged disruptions affecting oil supply from the region.
Goldman Sachs has also revised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecasts, raising them by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027. The bank anticipates that the disruptions will persist into the next year, with Brent potentially reaching $85 per barrel and WTI at $80. Goldman Sachs warns that if Gulf production and exports continue to be constrained, Brent prices could soar to over $120 per barrel.
HSBC has followed suit by increasing its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel and its 2027 forecast to $85 per barrel. The bank has highlighted the ongoing challenges in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s petroleum trade flows.
Bank of America has adjusted its Brent forecast to $83 per barrel for the second half of this year and $75 for 2027. The bank also noted additional risks in the market, stating that further disruptions could push prices towards $120 per barrel, and extensive damage to energy infrastructure could drive prices up to $150 per barrel.
As a result of these forecasts and ongoing disruptions, oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May. In the US, diesel prices have reached record highs, reflecting the impact of the disruptions on global energy markets.
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