Binance’s pre-IPO perpetual contract for Anthropic has been making waves in the trading world. With the contract trading above $2,100 on Sept. 9, it reached an implied value exceeding $2.1 trillion based on Binance’s estimated one-billion-share denominator.
Real traders are actively pricing exposure to Anthropic on Binance’s platform. The contract’s price and share-count convention determine the trillion-dollar figure, with the venue setting the price.
A snapshot from DefiLlama on Sept. 9 showed the contract at $2,168.26, with $26.1 million in open interest and $24.76 million in 24-hour volume. Another snapshot from ByKaranteli put the mark at $2,122.74, showing an increase in open interest and some liquidations.
These figures indicate significant activity in the derivatives market, with millions of dollars in contract activity resulting in a company-wide valuation measured in trillions.
The contract’s price is based on a leveraged quote multiplied by a provisional share count, which may not necessarily align with the company’s actual valuation. Anthropic’s Series H financing in May raised $65 billion at a $965 billion post-money valuation, setting a benchmark for the company’s financials.
Binance’s contract announcement specifies an estimated one billion shares, but the actual total may differ. Traders are taking risks at prices that imply a premium to Anthropic’s May financing when the Binance denominator is applied.
The contract does not represent ownership in Anthropic and is not endorsed by the company. Without a public share price to reference, the contract’s price is determined by participants, collateral rules, and liquidity on the platform.
Changes in the share count can affect the contract’s price without impacting the position’s value. Binance may adjust the mark price and position quantity based on a revised denominator while seeking to maintain notional value.
Public filings and an eventual IPO will provide more information about Anthropic’s offering, including a disclosed capital structure and a marketed price range. Binance may transition the pre-IPO instrument to a standard perpetual contract once a stable third-party index is available.
In conclusion, ANTHROPICUSDT demonstrates traders’ willingness to invest in Anthropic at extraordinary levels. However, until an IPO provides offer terms and an external index is established, the contract’s implied valuation remains a product of Binance’s market dynamics and leverage rules.