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Technical analyst Kevin, known on X as @kev_capital_ta, emphasizes what he describes as “a layer at the exact level that we have been an eye on the last few months.” In a post accompanied by the graph, the chartist pointed to the confluence between the Macro 38.2 percent Fibonacci-Retracement of the 2021 of all time to the capitulation of last year low and a long-term decreasing resistance line that has acted as support since the depth of the bear market. Spot price hit $ 0.138 – the numeric location of that 0.382 retracement – before he returned to the current $ 0.18 region.
Possible path to $ 1 for Dogecoin
Kevin argues that the momentum photo of the higher time starts to shift. “The weekly RSI reached the exact level that it has found a low point since back in the depths of the Berenmarkt, but every time the price comes, we are at higher prices,” he wrote and noted that the relative strength index cuts out successive higher troughs, even as price stips.
At the same time, the stochastic RSI of a week has already produced a bullish crossover, while a two -week crossover is ‘in treatment’, a structure that provided rallies in the memecoin for several weeks in previous cycles.
From a risk agreement perspective, Kevin claims that the asymmetry remains mandatory. “As I said weeks ago, the risk -balance ratio on doge phenomenal was because your disadvantage was minimal and the benefit was enormous,” he said, revealing that members of his Patreon community took a “significant entrance at 0.15 cents and a stop loss during break.” According to him, the only missing ingredient is a tail wind from macro-economic data: “Positive MacReg data is needed to continue with the momentum and the process will speed up.”
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The graph shows a order of overhead fibonacci extension and retracement levels that map potential resistance zones when the rebound is adults in a trend domination. The first and closest is the 50 percent racement at $ 0.19039; It coincides with the bottom of a broken trend line, making it the next technical gatekeeper.
Moreover, the 61.8 percent racement, sitting at around $ 0.26216, marks the Golden-Ratio threshold that often distinguishes corrective rallies from primary up-trends. A small cluster at the level of 65 percent, visible on Kevin’s map at $ 0.28522, represents an intermediate obstacle before the price could attack the deeper 78.6 percent racement around $ 0.41339-a area that is in line with the start of the distribution gab.
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If Dogecoin recovers that zone, the full 100 percent racement would reclaim almost $ 0.73839 from the whole of the earlier decline, while an shaded violet tire above $ 1 would indicate the extension area that formal price discovers.
Crucial factors
Kevin’s framework is not limited to the doo -pair itself. In a separate post he set a short -term objective for Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) at 65.45 percent, identified it as “the Macro .786 FIB.” He expects that level to resist the metric, creating a window in which “altcoins [have] The possibility to catch an offer. ‘For Dogecoin Bulls, every stall in the share of BTC in the cryptomarkt can rearrange the liquidity to the meme-asset complex, exactly when the technical background becomes constructive.
Despite the recent bouncing, Kevin emphasizes that neither Bitcoin has not introduced a parabolic phase that is comparable to earlier cycles. “Never at any time, BTC or Altcoins moved in a parabolic phase,” he wrote, as he attributed the Gedempte Helling to “monetary policy and a lack of liquidity, which leads to less social risk.”
The analyst sees that dynamic change when “worldwide liquidity starts to rise and monetary policy is starting to relieve”, although he warns that the timetable is stretched by what he calls the errors of central banks and governments during the pandemic and postal Pandemie “.
For now, the memecoin that started as a joke remains tied to the macro conversation. A base on the 0.382 FIB and a synchronized momentum reset offer a technical springboard, but Kevin’s thesis – and the path from Dogecoin to the higher FIB goals of $ 0.26, $ 0.41 and thereafter – hangs together on the wider cycle that the liquidity is so far.
At the time of the press, DOGE traded at $ 0.175.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com