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Bitcoin rose on Sunday during trading hours with low-liquidity on Sunday after the US President Donald Trump had made a big announcement. The formation of a US Crypto Strategic Reserve, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA), set the market on fire with speculation. Many traders considered this a decisive moment, a moment when the place of crypto in the American financial system could strengthen, while others continued to be wary and wondered whether the rally could support themselves outside the immediate response. Under that skeptic is QCP capital.
A well-timed political bitcoin game?
The timing of Trump’s announcement is difficult to ignore. During the past week, risk activa were in increasing pressure, because worldwide markets responded negatively to a series of economic and geopolitical developments. Trump’s newly imposed rates rattled the confidence of investors, while shaky peace talks in Ukraine-Russia created extra uncertainty. The volatility of the stock market increased and weigh strongly on sentiment in the financial sector.
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Bitcoin broke under the reach of several months and showed signs of weakness before the Trump announcement. The sudden announcement was a stark contrast with the downward trajectr risk assets that had been followed.
QCP Capital marked The political strategy behind the move: “For a president who thrives on being the hero of the market, the performance of the risk assets of last week was anything but inspiring. His entire series of new rates and shakier than expected peace talks in Ukraine Russia rattled the trust of investors. So, although the timing of the SBR was somewhat unexpected, the political calculus was clear – Trump needed a victory before his approval classifications started to slip, a statistics that he probably takes very personal. “
However, there remain questions about whether this step is a real shift in the policy for long-term crypto-acceptance or simply a well-timed announcement aimed at stabilizing sentiment before the further economic tension emerges. While the rapid climb of Bitcoin during the weekend excited traders, QCP Capital does not remain convinced that this rally represents a meaningful outbreak. The company pointed to various important market signals that indicate that Bitcoin is not yet out of the forest.
QCP Capital warned: “Are we back in the game? Not entirely. BTC is still being traded at the bottom of the multi-month range and Frontend Crypto-Vers are still relatively raised with both Majors who still reflect a well skewed until the end of March. The VIX has also been increased and generally signals a broader market from risk assets, especially after the recent rate of the US government. “
Past lessons: The ‘XI Candle’ -comparison
For seasoned traders, the price promotion of the weekend is reminiscent of a historical event in the cryptomarket -the notorious XI candles of 2019. Prominent crypto analyst Cold Blooded Shiller took to X to make comparisons between the two events.
Consult the XI candle, cold -blooded shiller recalled How Bitcoin had been in a long -term downward trend and was hit at a deep lows with a market sentiment under soil. Then, apparently out of nowhere, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China should embrace blockchain technology. The result was a huge short squeeze, with Bitcoin rising by 40% in just two days. Traders at the time believed that it marked the start of a new bullish era for crypto.
“Sentiment was very quickly adjusted. You will (not) be surprised to hear that it did not take much to shape the entire mindset of Twitter to the positive points and the ability for the market to have an infinite offer now, “he wrote.
However, the euphoria was short -lived. A few weeks later, China went back to his rhetoric of Pro-Blockchain, the implementation of new performance against crypto exchanges and warning investors about the risks of digital assets. Bitcoin’s profit was slowly eroded, with a price action that reverses the following month and eventually immersing them under pre-announcement levels.
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“We did not immediately reverse the candle. It actually took many weeks to do that, which made it all the more painful for those who exchanged it or those who had their bullish bias, “cool -blooded Shiller remembered.
The similarities between the XI candle and the announcement of the crypto reserve from Trump are striking. Both events followed long -term periods of market weakness, both saw almost a dramatic shift in sentiment almost at night, and both created a new bullish story that was embraced by the market on a large scale. The most important question now is whether Trump’s announcement will lead to a persistent trend shift or whether, like the XI candle, it will eventually cross, so that late buyers will remain trapped at the top.
Important events to view this week
The ability of Bitcoin to maintain or extend his profit is will probably depend on important macro -economic and regulatory developments in the coming days.
On Wednesday, markets receive the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) data, a crucial economic indicator that could influence the expectations for the Federal Reserve policy. If PMI data shows signs of economic weakness, this can increase speculation on potential speed reductions, which can offer a racon wind for risk provisions, including Bitcoin. Stronger than expected data can, however, strengthen the view that the FED will maintain its restrictive policy position, so that both crypto and shares may be under pressure.
On Friday, the release of the Non Boeren Report (NFP) report, an important employment indicator that has influenced the market sentiment. A strong job report can indicate continuous economic resilience, reducing the chance of speed reductions in the short term, which can have a negative influence on Bitcoin. Conversely, a weaker than expected report could feed the risk-on sentiment, which further supports the momentum of BTC.
Also on Friday it is expected that the Crypto top of the White House will offer critical insights into the future of the US Crypto Strategic Reserve. If tangible announcements arise, BTC could rise further. However, if the event does not provide a meaningful policy direction, the market can respond negatively, which leads to increased volatility.
As QCP Capital said it: “Just when we think Trump has exhausted his cards, he may have even more surprises in the sleeve. Is this the push in the direction of that elusive of all time high? We will look. “
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 90.352.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com