Journalist
Posted:
- BTC exchange deposits have shrunk to 2016 lows.
- CryptoQuant analysts view this as a signal of a major rally for BTC in the long term.
Since December 19th Bitcoin [BTC] is struggling to stay below $100,000, but the long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency remains positive.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, the amount of BTC being moved to exchanges has fallen to 2016 levels. Adler added that the last time BTC deposits on exchanges fell this low, a major rally ensued.
“It generally suggests that they would rather keep their BTC in a personal wallet than get ready to sell.”
Source: CryptoQuant
Compared to early 2024, when daily deposits of BTC peaked at over 125,000 coins, the current value fell below 45,000 BTC, mirroring 2016 levels.
More BTC leaves the exchanges
Interestingly, the above-mentioned positive outlook was also strengthened by more BTC being removed from exchanges.
Using the BTC net flow-to-reserve ratio, Addler noted that the measure was negative, underscoring its dominance in currency outflows.
The ratio measures the correlation between net inflows/outflows relative to BTC reserves.
The negative value suggested that, on average, more BTC left the exchanges than registered deposits. This is a typical bullish signal.
Source: CryptoQuant
In short, BTC’s long-term prospects were still positive despite the recent spike in growth busy selling keeping the asset under $100,000.
Meanwhile, the BTC price remained range-bound during the holidays, consolidating between $100,000 and the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average).
Moreover, the daily RSI dipped below 50, indicating a short-term weakening in demand.
Source: BTC/USDT, TradingView
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price forecast 2025-2026
Should bearish pressure continue in the near term, a drop to $90K or $85K could be on the cards.
However, staying above the dynamic support of a 50-day EMA could increase the chances of a $100,000 retest or a bullish breakout.