- The prospect of an altcoin season continues to diminish as TOTAL2 market cap remained elusive for BTC.
- While some analysts see a buying opportunity, the market trend suggests it is still some way off.
Analysts have been thinking for months that altcoin season is close. But all this time, those predictions have failed to materialize. Again, the same speculation is going around after Bitcoin [BTC] price fell to the lowest value in two months.
Altcoin season, colloquially called alt season, refers to a cycle in which other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To validate this market phase, at least 75% of the top 50 alts by market cap must outperform the number one cryptocurrency.
But this cycle, many of these cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has led the rise and fall of the broader crypto market.
Will alts catch Bitcoin later?
A technical indicator that says “yes” or “no” to the season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies on the market except BTC.
When this indicator jumps, it gives credence to the possibility of an impending alt season. But a remarkable decline suggests otherwise.
According to AMBCryptos analysisTOTAL2’s market capitalization at the time of writing was $960.23 billion. Over the past six months this was an increase of 25.63%. However, the last 30 days through the last 24 hours have been torrid for it.
Source: TradingView
Specifically, its value has fallen 15.08% over the past month and 4.13% over the past seven days. Given the current state of affairs, it might be fair to say that altcoins may not experience a reprieve anytime soon.
However, if the value starts to rise and gets closer to a $1 trillion market cap, the possibility of an all-inclusive price increase could increase.
Memes are the ones leading, some analysts say
Meanwhile, several analysts have commented on the potential performance of these coins. Murad, an analyst from X, for example thought that memecoins will lead the wave where altcoin season comes or not.
In his message, Murad noted that:
“If an Alt season happens, Memes will outperform the Alts. If there is no Alt Season, Memes will do better than the Alts.”
Judging by the performance of cryptos this year, there is no denying that his opinion could be valid. This is because the meme coins love Pepe [PEPE]Bonk [BONK]Floki [FLOKI]and a host of others have outperformed many other altcoins.
If this remains the case when the market recovers, Murad’s position would be vindicated. Another pseudonymous trader, Mr. Crypto, has not made his preference known.
However, on July 1, he named that the price drop has provided a rare buying opportunity. He wrote,
“Honestly, so many Altcoin charts look like great buys right now. Most of them will easily be 30x.”
The role of ETH has not come into play
While these predictions depend on market conditions, others looked at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows whether Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum [ETH] or it is the other way around.
Historically, when ETH beats BTC at its game, it offers altcoins the opportunity to outperform the king coin. But if BTC takes the lead, the altcoin season will be hard to come by.
At the time of writing, AMBCrypto noted that the ETH/BTC chart had dropped to 0.054. This was a decline of 1.62% over the past seven days. A few days ago the price was 0.056.
Source: TradingView
But the recent value means that 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If this improves, the altcoin season will improve. If this is not the case, the market phase can be postponed.
In the meantime, the broader market could wait for spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading before getting confirmation of an altcoin season.
Realistic or not, here is the market cap of ETH in BTC terms
Although the event was initially predicted to start on July 2, expectations have now tilted towards the 8th.
If ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s performance after its own approval in January, it would be great for altcoins. If not, altcoin season could still be far away.