TL; DR
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Over the past six months, Cardano has underperformed, while Solana has been labeled an unregistered security by the SEC. So while we’d love to see it, we’re not holding our breath.
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You read that headline correctly.
Tether co-founder William Quigley (a great name) predicts that Solana and Cardano will be next for ETFs.
Why? Because “Wall Street is greedy.”
That’s not the worst analysis we’ve heard before… but it feels a little… strange.
Over the past six months, Cardano has underperformed compared to other major altcoins, while Solana has been labeled an unregistered security by the SEC.
(As much as we’d like to see it, Wall Street tends to avoid underperformance and red tape).
Regardless of the token in question, we have no hope whatsoever for new crypto ETFs each of the leading crypto projects in the near future.
Because in order to have a ‘spot’ ETF (where buyers buy shares in a fund, then the fund uses it to buy crypto), the cryptocurrency must first have a futures ETF (where speculators can bet on the future price of the cryptocurrency, without the fund that actually buys/holds the coins/tokens).
That alone takes quite some time.
Then the SEC will want the futures ETF to be traded for a year or more to ensure it is free from manipulation.
And even then, they can sit on their hands and reject spot ETF applications based on minor technicalities if they so choose.
Our estimate is therefore:
Yes, many of the major cryptocurrencies will have US-based spot ETFs, which will attract new investment and (hopefully) drive up prices.
…but it will take some time.
Wall Street’s greed will have to battle against the SEC’s slow and grudging adoption of crypto.
And if the bear market hits in the next twelve to eighteen months (as expected), Wall Street’s obsession with crypto will likely wane until business picks up again.
Patience is a virtue 🧘