When Gary Gensler left the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2025, Bitcoin was trending higher, and many expected a more favorable regulatory environment to further boost its price. upside down. Instead, BTC has fallen sharply into a zone that complicates the once-popular narrative that regulation, or specifically Gensler, was the primary force holding the market back.
Bitcoin’s price may say more about markets than regulators
The market’s response to regulatory changes has not achieved the desired results. Analyst Benjamin Cowen has done that named on Today it’s closer to $75,000.
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Cowen states that there is an important reason for this crypto markets suffered is that market participants began to lose confidence in the sector itself. After Gensler left, it essentially just opened the floodgates to the crypto era.
During this period, the influencers and politicians launched memecoins every day and attracted their followers without fear of any repercussions. This led to a massive misallocation of capital, with liquidity flowing into speculative assets rather than strengthening the broader ecosystem.
While people celebrated Gensler’s departure, it marked a turning point in the sector, with BTC only moving marginally higher before entering a bear market. According to Cowen, some people are celebrating the removal of Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserveit is a sign that history could repeat itself. They celebrated in the short term, which will mark a turning point in the Fed’s credibility in a few years.
If the Fed becomes a new cabinet within the executive branch, this could lead to a lack of confidence in the institution. In a few yearsparticipants will realize that markets were better off with Powell than without him.
Liquidity moves in the FOMC are becoming a familiar phenomenon
Bitcoin has shown a consistent pattern throughout the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and is not bullish in the short term. A crypto trader known as Max Trades marked that after the last seven FOMC meetings, BTC fell sharply after each decision.
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What makes the current setup remarkable is how closely it reflects pre-existing conditions March meeting. At the time, the price rose during the event, repeatedly hitting local highs while building a large pool of liquidity underneath. That structure marked the local top, followed by a 13% correction that erased most of the earlier move.
Heading into the current interest rate decision, these factors are in place, with BTC price trading just below a key resistance level on a higher time frame, adding another layer of confluence to the downside scenario. However, if this same scenario plays out in the same way, the BTC price could point to the formation of a new local summit around this event.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com