An interesting technical outlook paints the current Ethereum price action as a range-bound environment on a higher time frame, where patience goes dictate the next move.
The Ethereum Price Action is now in a sensitive zoneAnd according to crypto analyst Minga, the path to a true cycle bottom requires one more move down, and the levels to be wiped out before a macro bottom can be defined.
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ETH trading in a multi-year range
Technical analysis of the The weekly candlestick time chart shows Ethereum consolidating within a broad macro range whose boundaries are defined by two extremes: the 2021 all-time high at $4,877 on the upside and the 2022 bear market low at $878 on the downside.
According to crypto analyst Minga, the way to trade such a range-bound market is as simple as it can be: trade from level to level. Interestingly, ETH has followed a predictable sequence while trading within this range. The price reached its all-time high in 2021, fell slightly above to create a new all-time high of $4,946, and has been in a downtrend ever since.
The latest move saw Ethereum price fall to an untapped monthly low around $1,750 in February, where buyers stepped in and pushed ETH back up. However, that jump had no follow-up.
The rally stalled around $2,300 in March, but subsequently recovered and pushed acceptance below $2,151. As it stands now, so is Ethereum now back to trading around $2,000, that is an important psychological level. This in turn places the Ethereum price in what can only be described as the no man’s land of the range, where the next directional move could be either up or down.
Ethereum price chart. Source: @Mingarithm On X
A short rebound or a direct move downwards?
The analyst identified the price level of $2,151 as an important pivot point. Price action recently tried to regain this level but failed and showed a clear rejection. That rejection keeps a bearish continuation on the table for now.
As long as ETH remains below $2,151, the path of least resistance appears to be sloping downward. However, a successful recovery would change the near-term outlook. Minga pointed to a move to $2,395 if that happens, where there is a fair value gap.
Mingas negative expectation to be played in two phases. The first stop is $1,537, where there is a cluster of weekly equal lows (referred to as ‘EQLs’ in the chart above), creating a clear liquidity target. Minga expects this level to be reached, although $1,537 will not be the level at which Ethereum’s macro bottom will form.
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The real bottom goal lies much deeper. For a legitimate cycle bottom, Minga is looking for a sweep of $1,384, the previous structural low. Even more notable, Minga highlights the $1,190 to $1,148 zone as the most likely region where a macro bottom could form.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView