According to a recent on-chain study, the Bitcoin market has entered a new pivotal phase, driven by a growing gap between retail and whaling operations.
Whales’ positioning is a stark departure from retail optimism
In one X message on May 16, crypto analyst Joao Wedson highlights a clear schism between Bitcoin retail and whale activity. The claim of this post is based on measurements obtained from the Bitcoin: Whale Vs Retail Delta metric. For context, the metric monitors the difference in trading behavior between large Bitcoin holders (whales) and retail traders. By extension, it helps identify whether smart money is turning bullish or bearish, compared to the bias of Bitcoin’s smaller market participants.
Bitcoin’s Whale vs Retail Delta has hit its lowest level since January 2024, around the ETF’s launch, as strong short pressure from whales occurred during a phase of excessive market optimism.
Now we see a similar pattern of behavior.
A large number of people are… pic.twitter.com/ESSjxPd1ND
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 16, 2026
According to Wedson, the Bitcoin: Whale Vs Retail Delta has now fallen to its lowest level since January 2024 – the same period when the spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the United States. Notably, this period also saw a significant injection of selling pressure from Bitcoin’s major holders. The market analyst notes that the same behavioral pattern that occurred in 2024 may resurface. According to market figures, Bitcoin whales are starting to reduce their exposure to risk as retail continues to buy more Bitcoin, likely assuming a price floor has been set at $60,000.
Interestingly, whale activity often acted as an early warning signal during periods of excessive market euphoria. Large investors tend to manage their risks more aggressively, especially after strong rallies. However, Wedson notes that this difference does not necessarily mean an imminent price correction. Rather, it simply points to a clearly growing state of uncertainty within the Bitcoin market. If other conditions – such as institutional demand and ETF inflows – were to adjust to this already uncertain market, the world’s leading cryptocurrency could face bearish pressure in the short to medium term.
Bitcoin Market Overview
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is $78,188. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the major cryptocurrency is down 1.01% year-to-date. On the weekly timescale, Bitcoin is also currently down more than 3% of its value. ETF tracking site SoSoValue also reports that US BTC Spot ETFs have recorded a staggering $1 billion in weekly net outflows as of May 15. This figure represents the first negative weekly net flow in the second quarter, breaking a six-week bullish streak. At the time of writing, the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs are estimated at $104.29 billion, which represents 6.58% of the market capitalization.