Bitcoins price action looks uncertain at first glance, but one crypto analyst believes the real story is happening far from the charts most traders look at. According to crypto analyst Crypto Tice, this is the case. all that Bitcoin price noise obscures a single, quietly reliable signal that has accurately charted every major Bitcoin cycle in history: the Purchasing Managers’ Index. In a post on
The PMI cycle has defined every Bitcoin bottom
The PMI is a monthly economic indicator that tracks business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors. At first glance, this may seem disconnected from the crypto market. However, the analyst’s view on the PMI is based on historical repetition: Bitcoin tends to hit its key lows when the PMI is contracting, not when optimism is high.
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During these contraction phases liquidity is growing quietly in the background. The crypto market appears weak, sentiment turns negative and price action stagnates or declines. But this is precisely the period in which long-term accumulation for Bitcoin has always occurred.
As shown in the chart below, every major Bitcoin cycle features green zones that form during periods of PMI contraction, followed by strong upward expansions once conditions change. These conditions are based on previous market bottoms, exemplified by the accumulation margins before the 2017 and 2021 rallies.
Green-shaded zones labeled ‘scale-out’ periods consistently correspond to multi-cycle peak price phases in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Red-shaded ‘scale-in’ zones, on the other hand, highlight accumulation floors.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoTice_ On X
What the PMI indicator says now
At the time of writing, the Purchasing Managers’ Index is just above 48, which is just below the expansion signal value of 50. What this means is that Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of the PMI, which is the same structural zone that preceded each of the major rallies cataloged in the chart above.
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The indicator on the chart is in a red accumulation zone and is expected to move upwards in the coming months. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently in the exact same zone that marked every major buying window in history. However, this current accumulation zone will not be available for much longer.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,070, up 3.8% in the past 24 hours. The has it takes quite some time trading around $70,000, giving more credence to the idea that it has already bottomed out. Particularly some analysts have begun to point out this possibility. However, Bitcoin still faces investor fear sentiment. Bitcoin sentiment is now back in fear, just days after you showed signs of recovery.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com