As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim a key resistance area, one analyst has suggested that the end of BTC’s two-month consolidation could be weeks away, potentially opening up “generational opportunities” before the next bull run.
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The end of Bitcoin consolidation could still be weeks away
On Monday, Bitcoin rose 5% from Sunday’s low into key territory for the first time in April. Notably, the flagship cryptocurrency has traded between $62,000 and $74,000 over the past two months, but has not reached the top of its range since late March.
Now, BTC is retesting the $69,000-$70,000 resistance area, which could set the stage for a crucial near-term move. Market observer Ted Pillows declared that if the cryptocurrency reclaims this zone, a rally towards $72,000-$74,000 could take place.
On the contrary, a rejection would likely send Bitcoin plummeting to the $65,000-$66,000 support zone, where the price has held steady for the past month. In an X analysis, Ali Martinez noted that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that the flagship cryptocurrency is “stuck in a ‘No-Trade Zone’.”
According to the post, “URPD shows exactly where every BTC last went,” with a huge group of holders between $70,685 and $63,111. “As long as we trade here, millions of holders will be incentivized to defend their buy-in, creating a natural floor,” he added.
Nevertheless, analyst Max Crypto confirmed that BTC’s “decision time is very close,” suggesting the next big move could unfold in the coming weeks, based on its past price action.
As he explained, the leading crypto has shown similar performance over the past year, consolidating for 8-15 weeks before the last four major moves. This time, Bitcoin has been moving sideways for eight weeks and enters its ninth week of consolidation on Monday.
Based on its past performance, the market watcher believes that “BTC’s next big move will most likely occur in mid-April, regardless of US-Iran talks, and will likely have a negative impact.”
Where is BTC’s latest support?
Martinez also in his X-post analyzed multiple patterns and on-chain metrics to map BTC’s accumulation zones and potential bottom with high probability.
In particular, he highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching its key support level since 2017: an ascending trendline that has guarded its price for nine years, and each new test has preceded a parabolic expansion.
This trendline is currently around the $60,000 and $56,000 levels and could be “the potential launching pad for the next big bull cycle” if it holds.
Additionally, he outlined three metrics that could highlight the “line in the sand” and best buying opportunities for BTC: the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), the MVRV price bands, and the Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized price.
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The CVDD, which “tracks when ‘old hands’ pass on BTC to new buyers, laying a structural foundation for the entire market,” is currently around $47,960. Meanwhile, the MVRV 0.8 Band, located around $43,647, has historically marked the bottom and “the exact zone where BTC sellers exhaust themselves and the ‘Strong Hands’ take over the supply.”
Finally, Martinez noted that the LTH Realized Price, currently $49,387, is often the final support. However, he added that if the price falls below this level, “it signals a final capitulation phase, especially if the -0.2 Std Dev band is reached at $36,657” at what he considered “Generational Buy” levels.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com