As the market approaches the end of January, macro volatility is starting to pile up. With five major macro releases in one day on January 27, February looks to be off to a volatile start.
Notably, the stakes are even higher as these releases coincide with US President Donald Trump’s 4:00 PM ET speech, with investors listening intently for any mention of a shutdown, rate cuts or related policy signals.
The question is of course whether the crypto market, and especially Bitcoin, is on the rise [BTC] can handle the pressure as 60% of total capital inflows are still routed through BTC, keeping it center stage as February kicks off.
Source: CryptoQuant
From an institutional perspective, the timing couldn’t be much worse.
As AMBCrypto noted, the outflows from Bitcoin ETFs alongside a negative Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) suggest that US investors are not really getting into risky assets as capital continues to rotate to safer alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Indexdown 12 points on the week, it is now just a few points away from sliding into “extreme fear,” a zone often associated with early signs of capitulation as Bitcoin holders begin to realize losses.
Do this against this background macro releaseshave enough weight, in addition to the speech and the upcoming FOMC meeting, to attract Bitcoin January ROI in the red for the first time since the 2022 bear market?
Bitcoin faces rough waters as volatility sets the tone
Playing defensively in today’s market could actually be a bullish signal.
And yet the positioning of traders and investors shows a clear difference. Bitcoin is caught between caution and optimism, with spot flows indicating caution and institutional demand for Bitcoin remaining weak.
Meanwhile, BTC/USDT trade on Binance shows a long skew of 70%, indicating that traders are still optimistic about a rally. Open Interest (OI) has returned to $60 billion, and the… Estimated leverage ratio (ELR) peaks.
Source: CoinGlass
All in all, this setup ensures that Bitcoin is ready for sudden fluctuations.
On the map, Bitcoin is chopping in a tight range of $85,000 – $90,000. It’s a setup that has historically led to sharp price breakouts, up or down, often triggering cascading moves as leverage is removed.
It is striking that a similar design seems to be developing again.
With weak capital flows, rising speculative capital and a macro-heavy calendar, including the FOMC meeting on January 28 the pressure increases. In turn, a red close for BTC this month is very likely.
Final thoughts
- Five major releases, Trump’s speech and the FOMC put Bitcoin in the top spot as February begins.
- Weak flows, increasing speculative activity, and a tight consolidation range of $85,000 to $90,000 indicate a potential red month close for Bitcoin.