Bitcoin’s market capitalization has fallen to roughly $1.46 trillion, putting it below some major tech companies and commodities in the global asset rankings.
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The decline reflects increasing pressure on the cryptocurrency from multiple fronts – including rising inflation, geopolitical conflicts and weakening investor sentiment.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant, now says the bear market could extend to early 2027. His assessment is based on a profitability model that tracks how long investors’ losses typically last once profit-taking starts to decline.
Once profit-taking gains momentum, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically declines for about 18 months.
Since the trend reversed in October 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.
The trend only changes when unrealized profits rise and realized profits fall. We’re not there yet. pic.twitter.com/fQyIRLu8vv
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 29, 2026
According to Ju, the decline in investor profits started in October 2025. He says the trend has followed a roughly 18-month pattern seen in previous recessions, pointing to similar cycles in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
The bear market clock started in October 2025
The CryptoQuant PnL Index Signal – a chart that measures investor profitability using 365-day moving averages – shows the indicator reversing after peaking last year.
Ju placed the chart at X and noted that a recovery will only be confirmed when unrealized profits rise while realized profits fall. That shift hasn’t happened yet, he said.
Bitcoin was trading around $73,289 at the time of the report, down slightly over a 24-hour period. Data from CoinGlass shows that total open interest in the derivatives market fell to around $55 billion, while liquidations reached almost $224 million during the same period.
Long traders bear most of the damage
Long positions bore the brunt of these losses. More than $30 million in bullish bets were wiped out in 24 hours, compared to about $17 million in short liquidations. Despite these numbers, the long-short ratio on major exchanges, including Binance and OKX, is still bullish.
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Broader macroeconomic conditions are adding to the pressure. US PCE inflation rose to 3.8% annualized in April, and in response the chances of a Fed rate hike have risen sharply.
Reports indicate that tensions between the US and Iran have also roiled global markets, with risk sentiment for cryptocurrencies continuing to weaken.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView