Bitcoin’s June price trend got off to a rocky start, with prices now down 50% from the market’s all-time high. In the past week alone, the major cryptocurrency has fallen 16%, bringing its price to around $60,000 for the first time since February.
Notably, the heavy market loss coincided with the dominant Bitcoin Treasury strategy offloading $2.5 million in BTC to manage the balance despite initial cries of “never sell.” Additionally, the upcoming IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX is currently gaining a lot of momentum as a favorable investment. Using relevant on-chain data, market analyst Rafael, with the X username n3ocortex, has highlighted a bottom range in the market amid the current ongoing downtrend.
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Historical data supports a potential dip to $35,000 before recovery
After failing to break the $82,000 barrier in early May, Bitcoin entered another wave of correction, resulting in a 24% price loss so far. When performing a in-depth analysis of the chainRafael reveals that the asset’s recent decline has pushed prices below the average holder’s breakeven level for the first time since May 2022. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has also crashed below the 200WMA, exposing the asset to a significant, deeper cost ladder. The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), valued at $46,200, represents one of these bases and is often used to identify long-term market bottoms.
1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom?$BTC has fallen to $62,000, almost 50% below the ATH and down 24% in a month.
The price has now moved through the upper rungs of our price framework and into the cluster of valuation levels where previous cycles bottomed.
— Rafael (@n3ocortex) June 5, 2026
According to Rafael, previous market bottoms have typically occurred between 1.05x-1.18x of the CVDD. Based on this historical standard, the likely higher market bottom for Bitcoin is between $46,000 and $54,000. On the other hand, a worst-case scenario points to a bottom between $35,000 and $40,000. For context, Bitcoin has only entered this deeper market zone on less than 3% of trading days this market cycle.
Notably, Rafael also points out that Bitcoin’s cycle declines have become increasingly shallow, going from 85% in the first cycle to 77% in the previous cycle and around 50% in the current cycle. While this trend of market maturation does not rule out the possibility that Bitcoin will revisit a capitulation scenario, the weight of evidence currently supports the upper bottom zone.
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Bitcoin Market Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $60,537, reflecting a decline of 4.7% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume fell 4.69% to $1.21 trillion.
In addition to CVDD, other key on-chain metrics revealed by Rafael include Realized Price ($54,000), Balanced Price ($40,000), and Delta Price ($35,000). To restore the bullish intent for a recovery, the seasoned analyst explains that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the price zone between $75,000 and $78,000. where the STH cost basis, True Market Mean and the 200DMA come together.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview