There is growing consensus that Bitcoin’s performance pattern linked to halving events may be fully intact. Analyst Benjamin Cowen is the latest to strengthen the four-year BTC cycle, noting that:
The four-year cycle for Bitcoin has not been broken. In fact, BTC’s average medium-term decline is almost identical to what it is now.
According to him, also the current performance of the asset mirrored past US midterm elections. For perspective, the debut of the US spot BTC ETFs in 2024 was widely seen as a major update that would accomplish that break the four-year cycle.
But the key figures now point towards Cowen’s position.
Will Bitcoin hit the bottom of the market cycle soon?
According to an on-chain analyst, Checkonchain, BTC’s price action is flirting with the 200-weekly MA (Moving Average) evaluation model (200WMA Quantile). The bottom of the market cycle in the past has occurred near this important dynamic level.
The analyst noted:
The 200WMA Quantile measures where Bitcoin is trading against its 200-week moving average. Current readings are in the bottom ~10% of all historical observations, a region only visited during the deepest phases of previous bear markets.
Similarly, CryptoQuant said BTC could still sink lower to the $53.5K realized price level, an area that marked a “structural bottom” for previous bear markets, including the 2022 bottom.
According to the analytics platform, current demand for BTC was “very unfavorable” for a sustainable recovery. The weekly market report, the company added:
Demand conditions remain very unfavorable, with total Bitcoin demand (speculative futures and apparent spot) plummeting to -652K BTC last week, the largest contraction since January 2022.
In short, the weak demand meant that there was a high chance that the BTC price could fall below $60,000. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $63,000 and could extend its price recovery after retesting the February low last week.
That said, if previous market cycle patterns repeat, BTC could reach a true bottom in the third or fourth quarter of 2026, which would also act as the early phase of the next bull run.
Final summary
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the four-year cycle pattern has not been broken, despite claims from other analysts.
- CryptoQuant reinforced the same outlook, warning that its value could fall to $53K as overall BTC demand falls to a four-year low.