Bitcoin ended the week of June 5 with a nearly 20% decline – its sharpest one-week decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022 – but on-chain analyst Ali Martinez pushes back against the prevailing fear, arguing in a technical post on X that the market is approaching a major macro accumulation cycle and not the beginning of a deeper structural collapse.
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Martinez’s case rests on a convergence of on-chain metrics that have historically accompanied market bottoms rather than preceded further selling. Bitcoin’s drop to $59,000 – its lowest level since 2024 – has put an end to what he describes as “excessive premiums” across the board, according to his X-post. That kind of forced deleveraging, he argues, is typically what creates the conditions for a real bottom rather than a temporary recovery.
BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
The Bitcoin stats behind the call
Two data points are at the heart of Martinez’s analysis. The first is the long-term behavior of holders. During the recent downturn, long-term investors distributed more than $3.25 billion in spot Bitcoin, temporarily boosting foreign exchange reserves and increasing potential short-term selling pressure. That distribution, Martinez notes, corresponds to what historically marked the final phase of supply absorption before accumulation began.
The second is that the offering is held at a loss. Bitcoin’s drop to $59,000 pushed more than 10.46 million BTC into an underwater position. According to Martinez’s post, every previous instance of the offer-at-loss value crossing the 10 million threshold has accurately timed macro bottoms in previous cycles – a signal he considers one of the most reliable indicators available.
Bitcoin $BTC The bottom of the market is closer than you think.
This is what I plan to buy. https://t.co/DrI4OJXnL7 pic.twitter.com/j3YQNzw02G
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 10, 2026
Where the bottom might land
Rather than naming a specific price floor, Martinez identified two accumulation zones based on MVRV band analysis: the ratio of Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. Historically, the most reliable accumulation windows appear when MVRV is between the 1.0 and 0.8 bands, which currently equates to around $53,900 and $43,150, according to his analysis. It also tracks three major moving averages as structural reference points: the 200-week simple moving average at $62,800, the 300-week moving average at $55,000, and the 400-week moving average at $42,500.
Fellow analyst Benjamin Cowen separately echoed the assessment, telling his audience that investor psychology is approaching the area historically associated with major cycle bottoms – a phase he believes could extend into the third quarter and possibly into October.
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At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $63,000, recovering from the low of $59,000 as the market digests whether the worst week since FTX marked a capitulation bottom or was simply the latest step in a longer correction.
Cover image of Grok, BTCUD chart from Tradingview