Bitcoin is still trading above $60,000, but there are questions as to whether that area has done so yet become the macro soil for this correction or for another crash could still drag the price back in that zone. Technical analysis using Bitcoin’s weekly RSI, previous cycle support, and the 21- and 50-week EMA trend presents the bullish side of that trend, but bears can still argue that confirmation has not arrived until Bitcoin rises above the weekly EMA structure.
Bitcoin may have already bottomed out
The strongest argument that Bitcoin may have already bottomed comes from the weekly RSI indicator. According to shared to the thesis by Cryptoposeidon on The first three came around the lows of January 2015, December 2018 and June 2022, all of which later became macro bottom zones.
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In January 2015, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to around 28 as the price fell to $200. A similar pattern played out in December 2018, when the RSI fell below 30 around $3,500, followed by about three months of sideways accumulation before Bitcoin broke higher. The third example was June 2022, in the depths of the bear market that followed Luna’s collapse.
The fourth reading took place in early February 2026, shortly after Bitcoin crashed to a low around $63,000. this supports the proposal that Bitcoin may have already gone through its major capitulation phase.
The weekly candlestick time chart below also shows the RSI recovering from a low band similar to the previous bear market bottom zones, with the expected path suggests that momentum could spend more time rebuilding before a stronger push returns in 2027.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoPoseinnn On X
What confirmation and return to $100,000 actually looks like
The last two bear markets both took 364 days to go from peak to trough. The current correction is now 236 days old, leaving 128 days remaining window for Bitcoin to make another low if it follows the same timing pattern.
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However, looking into November 2022, Bitcoin broke below the previous cycle’s peak of $19,900 and collapsed to $15,500, spending a brief period below $16,000. That collapse was caused by the implosion of the FTX, a black swan event that liquidated billions in assets and wiped out confidence at the same time. Without a similar catalytic shock, the current crypto market dynamics lack the mechanism to keep prices below $60,000 within the remaining 128 days before a bottom.
Bitcoin’s long-term support band is between $58,000 and $66,000, and the February 2026 low is within that range. Bitcoin could still reach $55,000 or even $50,000 in the event of a liquidation event, but spending an extended period below $60,000 would require a very strong bearish catalyst.
On the other hand, a callback and monthly close above the weekly EMA and $80,000 in June 2026 would change the conversation from “Is $60,000 the bottom?” to “How quickly can Bitcoin rebuild towards $100,000?” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $72,860, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com