Bitcoin’s recovery above $80,000 has produced some kind of results trust back the crypto market, but a crypto expert warns that the timing of the recovery could be more dangerous than it seems. As noted by the expert, who goes by the name Crypto Patel on X, Bitcoin has now entered the same part of the four-year cycle that previously caused some of its deepest quarterly breakdowns.
Bitcoin repeats a medium-term pattern
Bitcoin has broken above the $80,000 mark and this has caused Coinmarketcap’s fear and greed index to rise to high neutral numbers. This step has been helped by stronger ETF inflows April and May, but Bitcoin is still 35.5% below its October 2025 peak. All these factors say that Bitcoin’s price action will begin in May on a positive note. However, according to observations by Crypto Patel on the social media platform
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The expert pointed to previous price action in May of previous years as examples of this mid-year weakness. His chart, published alongside the post, pointed out four different bear markets, each featuring the peak-to-trough decline.
In 2014, Bitcoin peaked in May and then fell 76.04%. In 2018, a new peak in May preceded a 68.35% collapse. In 2022, the same seasonal window in May led to a 70.06% price crash. The pattern is precise: three gap years, three peaks in May and three catastrophic declines. “Three for three,” Crypto Patel wrote. “No coincidence. Cycle mechanics.”
The chart then projects a similar structure into 2026, which is a medium-term year, and shows another possible decline of 66.54% from the current price.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoPatel on X
The Relief Rally trap
According to this outlook, Bitcoin price is now at an identical inflection point, exactly where previous cycles began their most damaging legs. Applying the average drawdown structure of previous medium-term cycles to the current price action, Crypto Patel projected a bottom zone somewhere between $50,000 and $30,000.
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The difficult part of Patel’s prospects is Bitcoin’s current market structure is not entirely bearish. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $81,530 and is now on the verge of breaking above the 200-day EMA of around $83,000.
Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $60,000 to $72,000 range over the past eight weeks before the recent recovery. This recovery is interpreted by a large part of the market as confirmation that the bottom has been reached and the worst is over. However, the crypto expert’s post directly addresses this sentiment as a potential pitfall. “The dip is in. Wrong. That’s the trap,” he said.
Several analysts have also noted that the four-year halving cycle indicates that the current price is a bearish trend The market may extend into the fourth quarter before a sustainable soil is created.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com