Bitcoin’s recovery attempt has succeeded back above $80,000 for the first time since late January 2026, giving bulls a reason to claim that the worst of the recent correction is over. However, one crypto analyst believes that the move directly reaches the level that could decide how May ends for BTC.
In a technical view shared on
Why Bitcoin will close May in the red
Leshka’s view on Bitcoin is based on its price action since the February dump. The daily candlestick time chart shows BTC recovering in an ascending channel, with the price moving higher from the $60,000 region to the $80,000 range at the time of writing. This recovery appears constructive as the move has caused Bitcoin to print higher lows and higher highs since the February low.
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However, Leska interprets the same structure otherwise. According to the analyst, the rising channel is currently developing a bear flag. A bear flag usually appears when the price bounces up after a big drop in a controlled channel, only to later break below the structure and drop further.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s recent advance is shown pressing on the upper limit of the ascending channel, and this is approximately the same area where the 200-day moving average is located. Interestingly enough, Bitcoin is seven months along without daily closing above this moving average, and this makes it an important boundary between a rebound and a confirmed trend reversal.
At the time of writing, the 200 MA costs approximately $82,000. The prospects here depend on how Bitcoin price responds to this level. The analyst’s proposed bearish path shows Bitcoin making a final move at the confluence of resistance and 200 MA before reversing, losing the channel and falling back to the $58,000 to $56,000 range in June.
BTC’s May record marks a big test
Bitcoin has already risen 7.11% in May 2026. Bitcoin’s monthly return table shows that May is often a one of his stronger months, with an average profit of 18.7% and an average return of 8.32% over previous years. Bitcoin’s May price action over the past two years has been positive, with the cryptocurrency gaining 11.1% in both May 2024 and May 2025.
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That historical force makes this prediction more interesting. The problem is that the rally is now moving right into the resistance zone where the 200-day moving average is.
Previous Red May closes have also occurred during tough market phases, including a 35.4% decline in May 2021, a 15.9% decline in May 2022, and a 7.10% decline in May 2023. Leshka believes 2026 could join that group if the current move at the top of the rising channel fails.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com