As Bitcoin approached the $78,000 range, leverage quietly built up beneath the surface, creating conditions for instability.
Once the price fell below $77,000, more than $100 million in long positions were quickly liquidated, triggering a cascade of forced selling.
This move intensified as liquidity thinned over the weekend, allowing smaller flows to cause larger price swings. According to the chart below, Open Interest (OI) had peaked at almost $32 billion, but had then fallen sharply to $21 billion, reflecting a deep debt wave.
When the price recovered, OI climbed again to $25 billion, showing that traders were once again entering with leverage. This pattern suggests that speculation is returning faster than stability.
If this continues, repeated liquidations could limit upside potential, leaving Bitcoin volatile despite underlying demand.
Coinbase Premium turns negative as US demand weakens
As Bitcoin climbed towards the $78,000 range, momentum appeared strong, but underlying demand began to shift. For almost twenty days, Coinbase Premium remained positive, showing stable US buying support.
However, when the price dropped around $76.8k, the premium turned negative, signaling a change in behavior. This move shows that Bitcoin is now trading cheaper on Coinbase, reflecting weaker institutional demand.
This shift likely emerged as traders took profits and reduced their exposure following the rally. While offshore demand still supports the price, the absence of a strong US bid reduces follow-on strength. If this divergence continues, the uptrend could weaken, leaving Bitcoin dependent on global flows and vulnerable to slower or corrective moves.
Realized losses rise as demand weakens BTC’s recovery
As weak demand continues to limit upside, Bitcoin’s recovery is starting to lose internal momentum. The price remains near the $77,000 range, but the conviction disappears beneath the surface.
Earlier in April, realized gains briefly exceeded losses, supporting the recovery.
However, this quickly changed, with weekly realized losses increasing to approximately $892.1 million, making up approximately $556.2 million in profits. This reversal shows that holders are now exiting at a loss rather than securing a profit.
As profitability shrinks, confidence weakens, especially among short-term participants.
Meanwhile, limited demand in the spot market is failing to absorb this selling pressure, delaying any recovery attempt. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could remain at the limit as weak demand and mounting losses reinforce a fragile market structure.
Final summary
- Bitcoin [BTC] The outlook is tilted upward as rising debt levels, weak US demand and losses of $793 million point to waning conviction and unstable positioning.
- Bitcoin remains volatile as repeated liquidations and weak demand limit recovery, leaving the price dependent on stronger global buying for a breakout.