The market is once again starting to wonder whether crypto has already formed a bottom.
From a technical point of view, the debate is understandable. Although Bitcoin [BTC] ended the first quarter up 22.4%, price action in March showed resilience.
BTC still achieved a monthly return of 1.8% and the structure included a strong uptrend to $76,000, indicating that buyers were still active even in risky conditions.
More importantly, Bitcoin’s response in the first 24 hours after US President Donald Trump’s ceasefire announcement adds an extra layer to the current setup.
According to CryptoQuant data, BTC has surged back above traders’ lower realized price ($69.4k), effectively flipping a key level in the chain from resistance to support after several weeks of repeated rejection.
For context, this metric represents the average cost basis of recent market participants. Naturally, a continued movement back above it is interpreted as a sign of improving market confidence.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index also turned positive following the ceasefire announcement, indicating stronger demand from US-based investors.
All told, Bitcoin’s price action before and after the ceasefire is starting to look more constructive.
The logic is simple: resilience during periods of market FUD is now driving more investors back into the realm of unrealized gains, which tends to encourage HODLing behavior over short-term distribution.
From a technical point of view, this is even more important. Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its peak of $126,000, meaning a significant portion of market participants are still underwater.
Naturally, the question arises as to whether this shift in positioning and sentiment is strong enough to mark a true structural low.
In particular, the timing of a recent market event suggests that this scenario may not be far-fetched.
Does a failed Bitcoin have a short signal strength or just a temporary push?
The market remains vulnerable, even if the recent ceasefire has provided some short-term relief.
In these types of situations, even a small FUD-driven catalyst can be enough to cause panic selling. The recent whale translocation is a clear example of this dynamic.
A user reportedly identified a Bitcoin whale linked to Eric Trump who opened a highly leveraged 40x short position, with a liquidation level around $71.9k.
And yet the Crypto Fear and Greed Index did not budge. As the chart below shows, the index continues to hover around 45, a ‘neutral’ zone historically linked to accumulation phases.
This setup receives further support from BlackRock, which adds $269 million in BTC inflows and Strategy which allocates $72 million.
In short, this successful stress test is one of the strongest confirmations of Bitcoin’s momentum yet.
From a technical perspective, the position already looks tight, with Bitcoin closing the session after gaining $73,000.
The most important takeaway? This is not a random move. Instead, it ties in with stronger on-chain signals and visible accumulation, reinforcing the idea that a bottom may be forming, with market resilience now starting to translate into technical gains.
Final summary
- Bitcoin is showing early bottom signals as it regains key levels and shows stronger accumulation.
- Despite the bearish positioning, price resilience and rapid recovery indicate that buyers are absorbing the selling pressure.