The crisis in West Asia resulted in rising oil prices and fears of growing inflation. This meant that institutional traders hedged against further negative consequences, as evidenced by increased demand for puts (bearish bets).
A further disadvantage was possible. Short-term investors were looking to protect their gains or try to exit the market at breakeven, limiting the potential of any rally.
Still, the price action on a higher time frame occurred at an interesting point where a price increase could not be completely ruled out.
Explanation of Bitcoin’s trend expectations
The sweeps over the 3-day time frame were recorded in white. The last upswing during the downtrend occurred in February and was incomplete. There is a reason why it is considered incomplete.
In October 2025, when the swing structure was bullish, Bitcoin made a double top at $124.4k. This inability to continue the uptrend was an early warning sign of bull weakness.
Subsequently, the swing structure shifted bearish after breaking the low of $107.2k in early November.
Consider the price action since February. The $60k swing low resulted in a bounce that did not rise above the 50% retracement level.
Many analysts consider the area above the 50% retracement to be ‘premium’, and a move into this area will likely result in the next bearish swing move.
The threshold was at $78.9k, and the last bounce only reached $76k. After this rebound, Bitcoin has not yet climbed below the $60k swing low.
Expectations for Bitcoin’s next step
Like October 2025’s double top, Bitcoin’s inability to reach new lows in recent weeks has been an intriguing development. Consider the $65.9k and $62.9k levels (cyan with dots).
The swing structure of the H4 timeframe was bullish, but the price was near the swing lows of $65.9k. A session below $65,618 is needed to turn fourth-quarter expectations bearish.
Likewise, a three-day session closing below $60,000 is needed to show that the downtrend will continue in the long term.
Until this happens, it is valid to expect the Bitcoin price to bounce into the premium value area above $78.9k. As things stand now, the market is waiting for a catalyst that will take the next step.
Final summary
- Bitcoin’s 3-day and 4-hour price charts provided some counter-intuitive bullish expectations around the lower time structure.
- The importance of the swing low at $65.9k and its defense over the past week means that the bears were not fully in control of the short-term trend.