After peaking at $75,000 in mid-March, Bitcoin is back in the hands of sellers, trading at $67,620.16 at the time of writing. Such volatility has led gamblers on prediction markets to predict the future price of Bitcoin.
However, the prediction market is also divided on this, as Kalshi predicted:
Meanwhile, Polymarket predicted that “Bitcoin is likely to crash below $45,000 this year,” with a 52% chance of this happening.
Furthermore, a closer look at Polymarket reveals a 43% chance that Bitcoin will cross $90,000, while almost 75% of bettors expect a drop below the $55,000 price level.
Elon Musk’s Bitcoin Plague
This comes as Elon Musk, best known for his posts about Dogecoin [DOGE]has created an interesting Bitcoin [BTC] plagues.
In his X-post, Musk included a 5-minute clip of an anime girl dancing with a Bitcoin logo behind her. Unlike Dogecoin, which typically saw a surge after Musk’s post, Bitcoin didn’t budge.
In fact, Bitcoin’s price was trading around $67,000 before and after his post.
With so much talk about Bitcoin’s price, the crypto community naturally seemed conflicted as well.
The crypto community remains divided
For example, a trader using the Head and Shoulders pattern confirmed the bearish sentiment, noting that BTC is likely to move towards $48K, provided it stays below the $77K price level.
However, a move above the USD 83,000 level will put the market back in the hands of the buyers.
Another analyst added further weight to the ongoing FUD, predicting that Bitcoin will likely fall to $45,000.
Not everyone shared similar sentiments, however, as another analyst drew a comparison between Bitcoin and oil prices, noting:
Every parabolic phase of Bitcoin in history has been preceded by an oil bottom.
On-chain statistics juggling between bulls and bears
This tug-of-war between bulls and bears was further reflected in the price chart, where the technical indicator – RSI was at the level of 50, indicating that neither bulls nor bears are in favor.
So, for a real bull run, BTC needs to break above the $70,917 resistance level and advance further. However, a decline below the USD 65,000 support level will sink the price into the hands of the sellers.
The same thing happens with the liquidity heatmap, where the longer time frame of 1 month and 3 months suggests that the price is likely to fall near the $64,000 magnetic zone.
However, the shorter time frames of 1 week and 24 hours show a strong magnetic zone around $68.00.
Furthermore, the decline in the number of 30-day active addresses also suggests that on-chain and user activity are also low. Meanwhile, the multi-peak social volume metric indicates that people may be talking about BTC, but whether it is negative or positive is unknown.
This followed a recent prediction from Polymakret, in which the gamblers claimed the same thing, noting:
Bitcoin is now more likely to crash below $45,000 than it is to regain $100,000 this year.
Final summary
- Technical indicators that are near the neutral level zone create more uncertainty in the market.
- On-chain statistics without strong bull signals suggest that bulls are struggling to regain control over the bears.