A crypto market analyst has outlined what he describes as a simple mathematical method that has helped identify its bottom Bitcoin’s previous bear market. By focusing on long-term Fibonacci levels and quarterly price behavior, the analyst argues that the same structural logic that marked the 2022 bottom is now shaping Bitcoin’s next macro phase.
Simple math that identified the bottom of the Bitcoin price bear market
In an X-post shared on March 8, crypto analyst Chetan Gurjar said revisited a prediction he made in December 2022 about Bitcoin’s bear market is at a low. While he acknowledged that the timing of the call was slightly off by a few months, he stated that the price target itself appeared to be accurate.
Related reading
The analysis referenced The bottom of the bear market for Bitcoin around the $15,000 region at the end of 2022, which the analyst had previously forecast using this framework. His approach is focused on macro Fibonacci extension levels plotted on the quarterly chart, paying particular attention to the 1.618 Fibonacci level, positioned near $62,084.
The graph in the explanation shows how Bitcoin historically responds to this macro level. During the 2021 bull cycle, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to break and sustain price actionabove the Fibonacci level of 1,618. The analyst pointed to the candles for the second and fourth quarters of 2021, both of which were rejected in the same zone.
These repeated rejections gave rise to strong resistance at the time, reinforcing the importance of the level in the broader market structure. By mapping these macro levels across cycles, the analyst argues that Fibonacci math can help in the long run identify both extreme lows and potential expansion objectives.
Quarterly Fibonacci Retest Suggests Next Macro Phase
The analyst’s latest chart interpretation suggests that Bitcoin’s relationship with the 1,618 The Fibonacci level has moved from resistance to support. After breaching the $62,084 mark on a quarterly basis, Bitcoin has not produced a quarterly candle close to the level since the breakout.
The graph shows two notable retests after the move. In the second and third quarters after that, Bitcoin briefly tested the level, but eventually managed to stay above it. One quarterly wick even fell below $50,000 before reaching the $62,084 level. As of the current quarter ending in March, Bitcoin is once again trading above the same macro-Fibonacci level. According to the analyst’s interpretation, this behavior represents a bullish quarterly retest.
Related reading
The chart’s projection extends to the next Fibonacci expansion level at 2,618, which is near $393,874. Gurjar describes this level as the minimum macro goal if the structure holds. The chart also signals potential volatility, suggesting that price swings could extend towards the $500,000 region during the expansion phase.
However, the analyst notes that deeper quarterly swings remain possible depending on broader market conditions, including potential weakness in the altcoin market. Even with this caveat, the framework presents the current structure as a continuation pattern centered on Bitcoin at the Fibonacci level of 1,618.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com