The market currently moves on anticipation, not action.
You can see it in risky assets this cycle. Unlike crashes of the past, which followed real shocks like tariffs, shutdowns or real-time geopolitical events, investors today seem determined to get ahead of the risk before it even hits.
For example, even before an official government shutdown is announced, Polymarket shows that there is a good chance this will happen. At the time of writing they were at 96%, which clearly indicates Bitcoin [BTC] tense as traders keep a close eye on every macro signal.
Source: Polymarkt
In this context, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due to be released on February 13 at 8:00 AM ET, has taken on added significance as Wall Street to expect the CPI drops from 2.7% to 2.5%.
Naturally, this puts Bitcoin’s $65k bottom under scrutiny.
Now the recent one US Jobs Report came in stronger than expected and this has already limited “expectations” for the FOMC rate cuts in March. So going into the CPI release, traders are on edge knowing that even small deviations can cause sharp moves in Bitcoin.
According to AMBCrypto, the timing couldn’t be worse.
The sentiment is already fragile. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index recently hit a low of 5, even lower than during the COVID crash, raising questions about whether Bitcoin’s $65,000 theorem can actually hold.
Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin prediction is getting attention
Major players are also lowering their Bitcoin forecasts.
Standard Chartered, for example recently lowered its end-2026 target from $150,000 to $100,000 – the second reduction in three months. The bigger takeaway is the warning of a BTC correction, possibly all the way up to $50,000.
At first glance that may sound extreme. Bitcoin is still 23% above that level. However, when you add the final layer CryptoQuant Statisticsthe call starts to look less like ‘speculation’ and more like a scenario based on data.
Source: CryptoQuant
Based on the numbers, $55,000 marks Bitcoin’s realized price – a level historically tied to market bottoms. In previous cycles, BTC has traded 24-30% below this level before stabilizing. Today it is about 18% above that.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered based its $50,000 thesis on a weaker macroeconomic backdrop and deferred Fed rate cuts as key risks. It was taken into account that Bitcoin has already fallen by more than 40% attracted investors nearly $8 billion from US Spot ETFs.
Add to that the FUD surrounding a government shutdown, the upcoming CPI report, and an extremely cautious market, and it’s easy to see why the $50,000 bottom is on the radar, putting pressure on Bitcoin’s current support levels.
Final thoughts
- The anticipation of a government shutdown, the CPI report, and a strong jobs report are putting pressure on Bitcoin’s $60,000 bottom.
- With BTC down more than 40% from its October peak and investor outflows from Spot ETFs, the bank’s $50,000 thesis is getting attention.