On paper, the market continues to show classic accumulation signals.
From a sentiment perspective, the crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen 30 points to neutral since late November, while TOTAL market cap remained stuck sideways around the $3 trillion level.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin [BTC] has remained near $90,000 over the same period, indicating that a base may be forming that could pave the way for $100,000, especially since January has historically favored Bitcoin’s uptrend.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Against this setup, the latest tariff threat came at just the right time.
For context: President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran, effective immediately. And yet, BTC’s 1.2% closing price at $92,000 shows structural resilience, reinforcing ongoing accumulation signals.
Simply put, the market appears to have adapted to the rate wars.
That said, the most important question remains: is this resilience visible in the chain? Because looking deeper into the latest round of threats, it may still be too early to interpret Bitcoin’s price as a clean accumulation zone.
Bitcoin’s consolidation put to the test
The strategic play behind this rate change is what really matters.
From a macro perspective, a 25% tariff on Iran doesn’t seem too significant. However, if you zoom in, the image shifts. Analysts remark that China is Iran’s largest trading partner, accounting for 30% of Iran’s total foreign trade.
In this context, Bitcoin LTH positioning becomes more relevant. According to Glassnode, current LTH behavior is consistent with “higher uncertainty,” a pattern that historically occurs in the early stages of deeper bear markets.
Source: CryptoQuant
Against this background, a new wave of LTH distribution cannot be ruled out.
Historically, the escalations of the US-China trade war have fueled market-wide FUD. In October, after Trump’s 100% tariff, LTH posted a profit that topped $1.5 billion, while Bitcoin suffered a 30% loss.
So the question is of course whether history will repeat itself.
As things stand now, BTC’s near-term support level is at $80,000, which matches the average cost basis of ETF holders. However, with positioning is still vulnerable Now that the rate story is back in play, downside risk is starting to increase.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin continues to consolidate, with sentiment improving and $80,000 acting as crucial support. Yet the statistics on the chain still indicate caution.
- With rate tensions re-emerging and positioning vulnerable, a new distribution phase cannot be ruled out, increasing the risk of failure if the macro FUD accelerates.