The Bitcoin hash ribbon indicator recently returned to a buy signal on the weekly time frame, according to a January 8 video analysis from crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev Capital TA). The design matters, he argued, because the model has historically been associated with higher prices after correction periods, even if its track record is no longer spotless.
In the video, Kev Capital walked viewers through the weekly Bitcoin chart with the hash ribbon overlay, describing it as one of the higher “hit rate” signals in crypto’s technical playbook. “There have been 19 buy signals on the weekly time frame throughout Bitcoin’s history and it has a hit rate of 84%,” he said, adding that such consistency is rare for a single indicator.
Hash ribbons attempt to infer miners’ stress and recovery by comparing short- and longer-term moving averages of the network’s hash rate. Kev Capital framed it less as a simple ‘buy/sell’ tool and more as a measure of network health, where miner behavior can precede shifts in market structure. “It’s not just a buying and selling indicator. It tracks the mining hash rate,” he said. “And what that basically means is that it tracks the overall strength and network health on the Bitcoin blockchain.”
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The mechanisms, as he explained them, depend on the 30-day moving average of the hash rate (his chart showed this as a green line) versus the 60-day moving average (a gray line). When the 30-day falls below the 60-day, the model labels this as capitulation, which it says is consistent with bearish price action and a weaker network background. When the 30-day comes back above the 60-day mark, the indicator prints a buy signal (shown as blue dots on its chart), which it interprets as miners “bounce back” after weaker operators are forced out.
“Any time the 30-day falls below 60, it marks a capitulation phase, showing that bearish price action has occurred in a weaker network,” Kev Capital said. “Now when it comes back up, you get the blue dots, and that’s a buy signal. That’s when the 30-day moving average of the hash rate goes back above the 60-day moving average of the hash rate.”
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Buy Signal Returns
The short-term catalyst for its update was a new signal series around the end of December. Kev Capital said hash ribbons flashed through the capitulation in the penultimate week of December, followed by a buy signal in the last week of December. He noted that the indicator gave another “capitulation signal” last week, but that this has not yet been confirmed. This could trigger a new buy signal if the moving averages continue to “mix” and then move higher.
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He also spent time qualifying the model’s reputation. While he cited a historic success rate of 84% for the weekly buy signals, he said the indicator showed two buy signals earlier in the current cycle: May and July did not produce the kind of follow-through that has defined previous successful examples.
“We did move up from the original buy signal, but it really wasn’t much,” he said, contrasting that with previous hash ribbons episodes that “typically see a 30 to 100% move.” According to him, those disappointing results were enough to break what he described as a previous ‘100% hit rate’ framework.
https://t.co/vfZFXTAN77 #BTC Weekly Hash Ribbons Buy Signal and What It Means. #Crypto #Altcoins
— Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) January 8, 2026
Yet Kev Capital argues that the context is different now as the latest signal comes after a pullback. He pointed to a 36% drop in Bitcoin during the recent correction period and suggested that the first signs of miner recovery, reflected in the moving averages stabilizing and trying to rise, are the conditions in which the indicator has historically performed best.
However, he cautioned that the timing is variable, saying it could take “two to four to six weeks” before the lineup is played out or can be moved sooner.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $91,009.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com