The Bitcoin price and the crypto market may have lagged behind the global financial market in performance after the Christmas holidays. The story was a little different for the digital asset market after the New Year holidays, with altcoins in particular enjoying most of the rally.
On Friday, January 2, the leading cryptocurrency jumped above the psychological level of $90,000. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that investors needn’t get excited about the recent Bitcoin price action.
Bitcoin price must exceed the average STH price of $99,000
In a Jan. 2 post on the X platform, crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci said revealed that the recent price jump for Bitcoin does not say much about the current market structure. The on-chain data expert’s evaluation is based on the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which is currently around the $99,000 level.
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For context, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is an on-chain metric that tracks the average price where short-term Bitcoin investors (holding less than 115 days) acquired their coins. Because it is the average cost basis of the most reactive group of investors, the STH Realized Price often functions as a dynamic support and resistance level.
While the price of BTC fell below the Short-Term Holder Realized Price four times in the past year, it has been below this critical threshold since September 2025. According to Kesmeci, Bitcoin price must close above this STH Realized Price at $99,000 before bull run talks can resume.
Kesmeci wrote on X:
There’s no bull market without making the heartbroken short-term investor happy.
This statement reiterates the importance of short-term investors in market dynamics. For example, in this case, a breach of the price realized by short-term holders could signal a return of demand and confidence among the most reactive investor cohort.
Data converges between $99,000 and $102,000
Additionally, Kesmeci pointed out that additional on-chain data reinforces the critical importance of the $99,000 region to the Bitcoin price trajectory. The crypto analyst said significant data is converging in the $99,000 – $102,000 range, and until this region is surpassed, BTC’s price could continue to struggle.
In an earlier post on the X platform, Kesmeci had done just that revealed that the price of BTC must close above $101,000 for the long-term trend to turn positive. This explains why the analyst later concluded that the price range of $99,000 – $102,000 is crucial for Bitcoin’s health.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is around $90,110, reflecting an increase of around 2% in the last 24 hours.
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Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView