The “crypto winter” narrative is fading as global dollar liquidity begins to rise again.
While mainstream headlines remain fixated on year-end volatility, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has identified a crucial structural shift that could define the first quarter of 2026.
According to Hayes, the brutal contraction in global dollar liquidity, which has been a major headwind for risk assets in 2025, officially bottomed out in November.
This is not just a technical observation. In fact, it’s a fundamental green light for the “money printer” narrative.
Liquidity – What is the status now?
According to HayesLiquidity is no longer decreasing but is now slowly increasing, creating a fertile environment for renewed momentum in the crypto markets.
This sentiment is gaining momentum among both on-chain analysts and macro commentators.
In particular, Mr. Crypto be to a looming catalyst, and that is an expected $8.165 billion injection from the Federal Reserve, scheduled for January 6.
He said,
“We are now on the positive side of the liquidity cycle… Quantitative easing. Are you optimistic about 2026?”
However, that’s not all. After a tough week with cumulative net outflows of $1.12 billion, US Spot Bitcoin has risen [BTC] ETFs finally snapped their losing streak on Tuesday.
Is there a plot twist?
Since then, the recovery has been substantial, with the sector absorbing $355 million in one session and wiping out almost a third of the previous week’s exits.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the inflow, securing $143.75 million in fresh capital. Ark 21Shares (ARKB) followed with $109.56 million, Fidelity (FBTC) added $78.59 million and Bitwise (BITB) brought in $13.87 million.
VanEck (HODL) booked $4.98 million, according to Farside Investors, and Grayscale (GBTC) added $4.28 million.
This turnaround was in stark contrast to the heavy selling of just days earlier.
On December 26, the funds lost $275.9 million – a moment that many analysts saw as the year-end derisking.
December’s ‘Perfect Storm’ vs. New Year’s Lineup
The broader context of December was one of withdrawal.
Overall, Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $744 million last month as investors grappled with falling prices and the typical “liquidity vacuum” that occurs between Christmas and New Year’s.
Spot Ether (ETH) ETFs have found their way foot on December 30, ending a painful four-day outflow streak with net inflows of $67.8 million.
This pivot followed a stretch where Ethereum [ETH] funds lost more than $196 million, including a particularly dark session on December 23 that saw $95.5 million go out the door.
What awaits us?
Despite the institutional pivot, immediate price action remains to be seen. That was also the case with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
However, contrary to historical norms, Bitcoin has yet to fully respond to the growing money supply in major economies such as the US, China and Japan.
Even as global liquidity reaches record highs, BTC remains nearly 30% below its all-time high – a sign that while fuel is being added to the system, it has not yet stoked a speculative fire.
Traders currently appear cautious and unwilling to take aggressive positions until the dust settles at the end of the year.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin and Ether ETFs returning to inflows after a brutal outflow cycle indicate early institutional positioning.
- Data from the chain showed that Bitcoin is in a “deep value zone,” which has historically been linked to long-term bottoms, not depletion.