Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum below $90,000, yet continues to hover above $86,000, reflecting a market in the grip of indecision. Price action is limited to a narrow range, where neither buyers nor sellers can exercise clear control.
As volatility tightens, apathy has become a defining characteristic of the current environment, and more and more analysts are openly discussing the possibility of the market moving into a broader bear phase.
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While price levels dominate the headlines, on-chain data suggests the main battle is happening beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s current positioning cannot be understood based on price alone.
Instead, the focus shifts to the cost base of the major market participants, specifically whales and Binance spot users. Even if Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, the most consequential level is significantly higher.
Data shows that the average cost basis of new whales, defined as holders with coins that are less than 155 days old, is around $100,500. This zone represents a critical break-even threshold for major players who have recently entered the market.
As a result, any approach to $100,000 has greater meaning. That level could trigger distribution as whales try to protect capital, or mark the start of renewed accumulation as confidence returns.
Cost basis data maps Bitcoin true support and resistance
The report highlights that, under Bitcoin’s current price action, cost basis data provides a clearer framework for understanding market risk. For Binance spot users, the average cost basis is around $56,000. This level represents the largest concentration of spot volume in the market and effectively defines the “deepwater zone” if conditions deteriorate.
In a prolonged bearish phase, the majority of spot holders would be tested at $56K, making it a crucial long-term support area rather than a short-term trading level.
Long-term positioning of whales adds another important layer. The cost basis for whales holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days is around $40,000. This means that even after the recent correction, these participants are still sitting on gains of more than 2x.
This profit buffer partly explains the increase in realized profits in recent weeks. For many long-term holders, current prices already represent a satisfying exit, increasing the incentive to strengthen rather than accumulate aggressively.
Taken together, the data reframes Bitcoin’s market structure. The key short-term ceiling remains near $100,000 as the newer whales approach breakeven and supply tends to develop. On the other hand, $56,000 stands out as the level where conviction would be most tested in the spot market.
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Bitcoin consolidates above key weekly support as momentum cools
Bitcoin is trading near the $88,700 level on the weekly chart, stabilizing after a sharp decline from the $120,000-$125,000 highs reached earlier this cycle. While the broader 2024 uptrend remains intact, the recent price action signals a clear slowdown in momentum. The market has shifted from an impulsive expansion phase to a corrective and consolidating structure, with volatility compressing around a critical support zone.
Technically, Bitcoin remains just above its medium-term rising moving average, which has served as dynamic support throughout this bull cycle. The rejection above $110,000 marked a decisive loss of control on the upside, and the inability to regain that zone quickly signals a distribution rather than a short break. At the same time, the price remains well above the long-term moving average, underscoring that this move is still corrective within a larger trend and is not yet a confirmed trend reversal.
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Volume dynamics support this interpretation. Selling pressure increased during the initial crisis, but recent weeks have seen declining volume as the price stabilizes between around $86,000 and $90,000. This indicates seller exhaustion, although buyers have yet to act with conviction.
Structurally, the range of €86,000 – €88,000 is crucial. Holding this zone keeps the higher time frame bullish structure alive. A clean analysis would reveal deeper disadvantages. While a recovery above $95,000 would be needed to reaffirm bullish momentum and reopen the path to previous highs.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com