Fidelity’s chief market strategist has warned that Bitcoin’s October high of $126,000 could mark the top of the current cycle, and investors should be ready for a rough ride in 2026.
According to Jurrien Timmer, a notable pullback is possible next year, with important support between $65,000 and $75,000. This view sits alongside data points and trader commentary that recalls big declines after sharp peaks.
Cycle Alert from Fidelity
Timmer said Bitcoin price history follows a rhythm of roughly four years halves. Past peaks have been followed by steep corrections of around 70 to 85%.
For example, after a high of $1,137 in 2013, the price fell to around $230, and the 2017 peak around $14,050 later fell towards $3,415. After 2021, prices rose again, and that pattern of parabolic advance and then sharp decline has repeated itself. Some traders say these falls are a test of patience rather than a sign that the story is broken.
Trouw warns: #Bitcoin The cycle peak may already have arrived
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer believes October’s high of $126K was the top of this cycle. Based on $BTC Four-year halving pattern. He expects 2026 to be a bad year, with support around $65,000 – $75,000.
Short term pain, long term pain… pic.twitter.com/t9wNeF5lTo
— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) December 21, 2025
Historical charts show parabolic movements
Reports have shown that long-term log charts help put these swings into perspective by showing percentage growth across cycles, making big dollar movements easier to read.
Market action often looks like a quick climb to a peak, a quick decline, and a long period where prices move sideways and gains feel slow. In those lateral trajectories, many long-term owners are rewarded, even if it can take years.
BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, although it is possible that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026. The options markets are currently pricing an even odds of $70,000 or $130,000 for the month of June 2026, and an even odds of $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year…
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) December 21, 2025
Galaxy Research has identified overlapping macro and market risks that make predicting 2026 more difficult, and options and volatility trends suggest Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro asset than a pure growth bet. Galaxy Research is still bullish on a multi-year view, predicting a path to $250,000 by the end of 2027.
First quarter patterns can matter
Based on reports from traders, the first quarter has been a period that has often supported price stability in recent cycles, although recent years have seen less regularity. The large inflows and purchases of government bonds that could occur in 2025 could be offset by early cycle selling by large bondholders.
The balance between institutional demand and whale supply is likely to emerge in the first half of 2026, making this trajectory important for whether historical four-year rhythms hold.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView