Journalist
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Bitcoin price momentum remains mixed following the recent mild Fed rate cut and ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision scheduled for December 19.
While the stock market rallied after the Fed’s mild rate cut earlier this week, Bitcoin remained dumped in typical ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ style.
Bitcoin Forecasts from Analysts
At the time of writing, King Coin was trading at $90.2k, remaining below $100k for the fourth week in a row.
Despite lagging U.S. stock markets, Coinbase analysts say projected that the Fed’s ‘stealth QE (quantitative easing)’ could undermine crypto markets into the first quarter of 2026.
“We think the Fed’s move from balance sheet reduction to net injection is seen as ‘mild quantitative easing’ or ‘stealth QE’, which could support crypto markets.”
The analysts pointed to the recent $40 billion liquidity injection and a “less aggressive environment than expected” in 2026.
For Swissblock analysts, it could be bullish momentum confirmed as Bitcoin [BTC] claims $93,500 back, based on analytics’ own models.
Source: Swissblock
Yet BTC and the entire crypto market still face two overhangs: the BoJ interest rate decision and the MSCI index revision for crypto treasury companies in mid-January.
Will Japan drag BTC again?
The Japanese decision was subject to the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR). negative for immediate option expirations on December 19 (-3.7) and 26 (6.4).
This underlined the high hedging activity or higher demand for puts (bearish bets) at the end of the year.
In other words, the top players showed some bearish sentiment based on the options market data.
Source: Amberdata
Since December 19 is the date for the BoJ’s decision, this signals caution around this macro update.
And the jitters are understandable because Japan is the largest holder of US government debt and could trigger another carry trade in the yen similar to last August.
Notably, the BoJ’s previous rate hikes were followed by a 20%-30% decline in the BTC price. If history repeats itself, the price could fall to $70,000, an analyst said warned.
Source:
Maybe, if BTC is the BoJ decision and in mid-January the MSCI lockout rating of Strategy and other government bonds could see a decisive recovery likely.
In the meantime, the market could remain choppy until these risk events are resolved.
Otherwise, a complete capitulation of the bear market could be confirmed if these events trigger a further sell-off and BTC’s relative unrealized loss exceeds 20%.
According to a senior Glassnode researcher: CryptoViz ArtBTC’s current relative unrealized loss is around 10% of its market cap, which is typical of bullish market trends in the current $80,000-$90,000 zone.
But more losses could lead to a bear capitulation like in 2022 if the value rises above 20%.
Source: Glassnode
Final thoughts
- BTC has remained limited to below $95,000 despite the recent mild rate cut by the Fed.
- The market seemed cautious in the run-up to the Japanese interest rate decision on December 19.