Ethereum has returned to the $3,160 level after the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. While rate cuts typically support risky assets, Jerome Powell’s comments added a new layer of uncertainty to the market.
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By openly acknowledging the risks of weaker growth coupled with persistent inflation, Powell introduced the possibility of stagflation – a scenario that has historically challenged both stocks and crypto. As a result, market sentiment remains fragile and investors are struggling to interpret what this macro shift could mean for Ethereum’s next move.
Despite the volatility surrounding the decision, one big whale continues to trade with conviction. According to Lookonchain, the Bitcoin OG, which famously shorted the market during the October 10 crash, is once again doubling down on its bullish Ethereum position.
Rather than taking profits or reducing exposure after the recent rally, he has continued to accumulate aggressively, indicating strong belief in ETH’s medium-term trajectory even as broader sentiment turns cautious.
The whale position increases, but the risk increases
According to Lookonchain, from the whale position has now risen to 120,094 ETH, valued at approximately $392.5 million. With a liquidation price of $2,234.69, this has become one of the largest and most aggressive long positions currently tracked on-chain.
Such a huge allocation shows extreme conviction, especially coming from the same Bitcoin OG who successfully shorted the market during the October 10 crash. However, the size of this bet also shows how much risk is now concentrated in one direction position.
The liquidation price is a major concern. At $2,234, the price is almost $1,000 below current levels, but in highly leveraged environments (especially during macro uncertainty) prices could pull back sharply. Ethereum has already shown a trend toward sharp intraday moves, and with funding rates rising and market leverage stretching to all-time highs, even a moderate correction could lead to cascading liquidations.
If ETH experiences a sudden spike in volatility due to changing macro conditions, a negative reaction to the latest FOMC decision, or broader market development, the whale’s position could come under significant pressure. While big whales often influence market sentiment, this setup illustrates how small the margin for error has become.
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ETH tests resistance as momentum weakens
Ethereum has returned to the $3,196 level after failing to hold above the $3,300 zone, indicating that the bullish momentum is starting to weaken. The daily chart shows ETH rejecting the red 200-day moving average, a key long-term trend indicator that has acted as resistance during the recent downtrend. Until ETH finally breaks above this level and closes, the broader structure remains vulnerable.
The 50-day moving average is still trending downward, reflecting continued selling pressure despite last week’s recovery. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average is well above the current price, reinforcing the heavy overhead resistance that ETH must overcome to reestablish a bullish trend. Volume is also down compared to early December’s rebound, indicating buyers are losing momentum as the price approaches major resistance levels.
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Structurally, ETH remains in a medium-term downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows since September. While recent pressure from the $2,800 region shows buyers defending key support, the rejection at $3,350 highlights that sellers are still in control at higher levels.
If ETH fails to regain the 200-day moving average soon, a retest of the $3,050-$3,100 support range becomes likely. Conversely, a strong recovery above $3,350 could open the door for a move towards $3,500, but the market will need renewed momentum to get there.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com