Key Takeaways
How is Bitcoin performing?
Bitcoin is facing the second-largest ETF outflow since its launch, and could set a new record.
Will BTC Price Recover?
It was unlikely that Bitcoin’s price could reverse November’s losses if it ended in the red.
Bitcoin [BTC] fell below the $100,000 mark and continued to trade below it, while Bitcoin ETFs and quarterly returns followed the decline.
Meanwhile, the entire crypto market rose slightly by less than one percent Fear and Greed Index hit 17, dropping to extreme anxiety levels.
Currently, the market appears to be heading for its worst month ever in terms of BTC ETF outflows and quarterly returns.
Bitcoin ETFs – Biggest Outflows Yet?
According to data from SosoValue, Bitcoin ETFs saw the second largest outflows in 2025, at $2.33 billion, as the month was still halfway through.
A similar outflow in the remaining weeks would see November reach a new record.
February of this year saw the largest ETF outflows, which amounted to almost $4 billion. However, since Bitcoin has now entered a discount zone after falling below $100,000, the outflow could potentially reverse.
Source: SosoValue
The outflows are a result of overall market weakness, with BTC’s price also suffering a similar fate.
In particular, BlackRock, Grayscale, Bitwise and Fidelity led outflows in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass facts.
BlackRock saw over 4,65,000 BTC outflows, contributing over 94% of the total 4,94,000 BTC on the day.
Quarterly returns: more coordination?
Bitcoin continued to struggle in terms of quarterly returns, as did Ethereum [ETH]which reflected general market weakness.
Since 2018, when BTC lost over 42% in the last quarter, this year’s quarter is the closest to that. However, this quarter’s loss still represents about a third of 2018’s.
Other years included 2022 and 2019, which lost about 14.75% and 13.54%, respectively, according to CoinGlass data.
Source: CoinGlass
Ethereum also posted its worst returns since 2019. The returns reflected lost confidence among traders in the crypto sector.
Historical facts indicated that every red November was followed by a similar December, making BTC unlikely to reverse this sentiment.
The pattern was clearly visible in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022, which were red for the last two months of the year.
Will BTC Price Regain Support?
On the charts, BTC price fell below the 15-month trendline support, according to Trader Tardigrade figures. analysis on X (formerly Twitter). This further highlighted the weakness of Bitcoin and its products, such as ETFs.
Reclaiming the support level would be very bullish for BTC, while the reverse would magnify losses. The next area of interest on the downside is around $80,000, while on the upside it is $126,000.
Source: Trader Tardigrade
Notably, only a change in crypto market sentiment could change the current downtrend in price action, returns, and BTC ETF flows. If the current trend continues, November would be the largest with outflows.
But since prices had been falling for more than a month and were experiencing significant discounts, there was still potential for a recovery.