Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin Nearing a Bottom?
Analyst Burak Kesmeci’s Realized Price Gradient Oscillator fell to -1.27 STDV, a level that has historically preceded trend reversals.
What’s holding BTC back?
Spot Taker CVD remained in the red, the Exchange Whale Ratio reached 0.59 and the Open Interest rose, demonstrating the dominance of sellers despite recovery signals.
Since reaching $116,000 in late October, Bitcoin [BTC] has fallen below $100,000 three times. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $101,839, down 8% on the weekly chart – evidence of continued bearish pressure.
Amid this market decline, crypto analysts have heavily debated Bitcoin’s future trajectory. One of them is CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, who believes the correction phase is nearing its end, signaling a possible recovery.
Oscillator suggests the cooling phase is maturing
According to Burak KesmeciBitcoin’s correction phase may be coming to an end.
Kesmeci’s analysis showed that the 90-day realized price gradient oscillator fell to an STDV level of -1.27. Historically, when this measure fell below -1 STDV, Bitcoin often rose.
Source: CryptoQuant
The dip indicated an extreme cooldown, with the correction phase almost complete and BTC indicating a recovery.
For example, this metric has fallen to these levels before. In the first instance, BTC rose from $82,000 to $110,000, and in the second instance, BTC rose from $108,000 to $124,000.
Based on historical patterns, these levels are therefore a sign of local bottoms and a recovery could be in sight.
Spot traders remain seller dominant
Although Kesmeci observed a potential market recovery signal, Bitcoin’s structure remained overly bearish. As such, the spot market stagnated, with increased sell-side activity leading to an over-reliance on derivatives.
Spot Taker CVD remained in the red last week, showing consistent sales dominance. Sellers appear to lock in profits or exit positions to limit losses.
Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, the Exchange Whale Ratio rose to 0.59 at the time of writing, the highest in three weeks – implying that whales have been pouring BTC into exchanges, a move that often precedes major sell-offs.
Source: CryptoQuant
On the derivatives side, financing rates remained positive, while open interest increased by $700 million, from $33.6 billion to $34.3 billion.
Source: CryptoQuant
When OI rises and funding rates remain positive while Spot sells, it indicates an unstable market structure driven by leverage.
Thus, leveraged traders had been actively fighting Spot pressure, which is often a warning sign of a continuation of the downtrend or a possible liquidation.
BTC at crossroads
According to AMBCrypto, Bitcoin remained stuck amid bearish sentiment, especially from whales, in the spot market.
The spot market showed clear bearish sentiment, while derivatives activity reflected the optimism of leveraged traders.
If bearishness continues, BTC could retest $98K. But if the Realized Price Gradient Oscillator pulls off another reversal, a short-term jump to $107,456 remains possible.