Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin’s $100,000 Support in Danger?
Bitcoin buyers are hesitant, capitulation pressure is increasing and market sentiment is deep in extreme fear.
What drives market risk?
Macro movements continue to weigh heavily, with $1 trillion wiped out in just a month. At the same time, leverage is creeping back in.
Belongs to Bitcoin [BTC] sub-$100,000 breakdown inevitable?
Despite BTC ending October down 3.52%, November started even lower, down 6.6% on the week. That means buyers aren’t taking hard action, leaving the market uncertain about whether BTC has really bottomed out.
In short, investor sentiment is decisive, and not the price structure. According to AMBCrypto, this could be why a deeper correction is not off the table, as Bitcoin is in a delicate balance between fear and patience.
$1 trillion gone, fear at its maximum, patience at an end
Macro movements continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
In just a month, $1 trillion has been wiped out of the crypto market. Particularly BTC responsible accounting for 23% of these outflows, indicating that the risk reduction is “market-driven,” with 70% coming from altcoin flushes.
Meanwhile, 300,000 traders are liquidated every day, keeping the market super reactive. And yet: Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) just hit a two-week high at 0.22, with the market-wide Open Interest (OI) increases by $5 billion.
Source: Glassnode
This means Bitcoin is now in “extreme” fear territory.
In fact, the chart above shows BTC crossing the 22-fear threshold for the first time since April’s FUD, when BTC dumped around 8% and capitulation pushed it back to the early election level of $76,000.
That was striking at the time realized losses rose to $2.2 billion. Fast forward to now: the market is bearish, caution is high, and investor patience is waning. Could this be the start of Bitcoin’s next capitulation phase?
Bitcoin $100k is hanging on by a thread
Bitcoin investors are at a major turning point.
CryptoQuant data shows that almost 1/3 of the BTC supply is underwater, approximately 28% of the circulating supply. From here, BTC could bottom out, or if belief falters, a deeper collapse could occur.
As the above analysis shows, sentiment is leaning more toward caution than opportunity. In this context, with BTC back to mid-June levels, both STHs and LTHs are at greater risk of capitulation.
Source: CryptoQuant
In fact, Bitcoin’s realized losses only reached $1.76 billion.
The result? BTC started November with a 4.71% dip, breaking $100,000 for the first time in five months. STH NUPL also plunged into capitulation at -0.107 (for the time since April), showing that STHs are experiencing losses.
In short, the market is feeling the capitulation vibes, with both price action and sentiment leaning toward caution. If it sticks, Bitcoin LTHs have little reason to hold, turning $100,000 from support to resistance.