Key Takeaways
What does PlanB say about Bitcoin’s cycle?
PlanB argues that Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak and says the current slowdown does not fit the typical narrative of a ‘post-halving top’.
Which on-chain indicators support his vision?
Bitcoin’s realized price ($55K) and RSI remain well below the overheated level, indicating that no major cycle climax has occurred.
Bitcoin’s recent correction has reignited old debates about whether the market has already reached the top of this cycle.
However, according to PlanB, the maker of the popular Stock-to-Flow, this is the case [S2F] model, the current market may still be in the middle of the cycle and not at its peak.
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He argued that these predictions rely too heavily on the “four-year halving cycle,” which he believes is too narrow to serve as a reliable pattern.
“Three cycles are not enough for a reliable pattern,” PlanB wrote. “The summit could just as easily come in 2026, 2027 or 2028.”
The analyst said the key signals in the chain show no signs of a market climax yet. He pointed to three metrics: RSI, realized price and the 200-week moving average, which typically show overheated levels before a major top.
Bitcoin’s realized price is still close to its historical baseline
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s realized price is around $55,200, while its market price is around $111,000. The realized price is the average price at which all coins last moved.
Historically, cycle peaks occur when Bitcoin trades well above this level, often coinciding with an RSI above 80.
Source: CryptoQuant
PlanB noted that this divergence has not yet occurred, suggesting that Bitcoin’s rally could still have room.
No significant overvaluation signal yet
Supporting this view, Santiment’s data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is roughly 2.56, well below the “overheated” range of 8-10 seen during market tops.
The benchmark compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and provides insight into how profitable investors are.
Source: Santiment
Simply put, long-term holders can expect solid profits, but not excessive profits that usually lead to heavy profit-taking.
A different kind of market cycle
PlanB suggested that Bitcoin may be entering a more stable phase dominated by institutional investors and fund mandates rather than retail speculation.
In this regime, prices may not rise or fall as sharply as institutions rebalance their positions to maintain their exposure levels.
“No fundamental Bitcoin phase transition has occurred yet in this cycle,” he wrote. “Either the big jump is yet to come, or we have moved to a more stable price regime.”
The bottom line
While bears warn of a post-halving collapse, PlanB’s outlook implies that Bitcoin’s current slowdown could be a pause, not the end of the bull market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $110,000. The coming months could bring the long-awaited breakout that defines every halving cycle, or a new era in which institutional flows set the pace.