The Bitcoin price has continued to fluctuate between $106,000 and $108,000 over the past 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency is currently showing some stability after another volatile trading week, which saw a price loss of 3.41%. In particular, Bitcoin’s move during this corrective phase has triggered an interesting signal up the chain with bullish implications.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are heading underwater, but historical data points to bullish signals
In one X message on October 18, popular market analyst Ali Martinez shares an important development in the chain. Amid the recent price decline, Martinez notes that Bitcoin has fallen below the short-term holders’ realized price (STH), creating an ideal situation for market accumulation based on historical data.
For context, the realized STH price represents the average purchase price of coins held by short-term investors, i.e. wallets that have held BTC for less than 155 days. When the market price falls below this level, it generally indicates that new entrants to the market are underwater, signaling local capitulation and short-term fear in the market.
Based on the Glassnode data shared by Martinez, Bitcoin fell below the price realized by STH during the last price correction on October 14. While such developments typically create temporary selling pressure, historical data shows that this has also become a signal for strategic buyers.
In particular, the price drop below the price achieved by STH appears to be in line with strong recovery points in the market. Notably, the above chart shows four previous instances (May 2023, November 2023, August 2024, and May 2025) where Bitcoin’s decline below the price realized by STH was followed by substantial recoveries. Martinez explains that this price drop typically provides a good opportunity for market accumulation, fueling future price increases. Interestingly, the broader Bitcoin market is still dominated by long-term holders, who potentially use this price pocket to strengthen their holdings, maintaining the current bullish structure.
Bull market still going on
In other news, a fellow market analyst with the username Titan has Crypto recently declared that the Bitcoin bull market remains active amid bearish speculation following the latest price drops. Titan of Crypto has based its positive market insight on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a crucial level in determining price direction in the current market cycle.
The analyst notes that as long as Bitcoin’s weekly price remains above this level, the broader bull market will remain active. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $106,800, reflecting a small decline of 0.40% in the past day. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is down 61% and is valued at $39.3 billion.