According to crypto analyst VisionPulsed, Dogecoin’s next reversal could happen as early as October 22 and 23. He posits that the memecoin’s multi-month ascending channel will either confirm with a higher low in the $0.16-$0.18 region or give way to another full “round trip” towards the end of the year.
On October 16 video In his analysis, he views the coming week as a binary checkpoint: “Next week it’s your choice… if this fails, it’s over. GG. If it holds up, we can say, ‘OK, the rally is coming and maybe we’ll get another chance.'”
Why October 23 could be crucial for Dogecoin
The case rests on a recurring confluence he has been tracking for months: Dogecoin marks a channel support trendline as the daily RSI moves toward oversold, followed by an improvement in its macro value on M2 turning bullish at the end of the month.
Related reading
“Every time we hit the trend line, the RSI becomes oversold,” he said, referring to previous tests in March-April and June. “In October we just hit the trend line again… and at the end of October the M2 turns bullish.” He doesn’t call it a “bull run” and describes the next upward attempt as a “bullish push” contingent on holding that support until October 23.
VisionPulsed places an unusual emphasis on timing. He sees confirmation if Dogecoin makes a higher low before October 22 and 23, with the precise price print being less important than maintaining the structure. “If it ends up being a higher low, which technically could be 18 cents or 16 cents… it doesn’t matter. We would hold the trendline,” he said. Failure to do so, he said, would push any sustainable turnaround beyond the horizon: “If we do end up in November, we won’t go up. It’s that simple. There’s no time left.”
Seasonality and sentiment are critical to his diagnosis. October, he points out, has been a persistent headwind for Dogecoin and the broader risk, while November often marks the turning point. “October isn’t really that bullish… the S&P 500 is bearish in October,” he noted. “November is historically the time when the market turns bullish.”
The week-to-week swing through the middle of the year underlines this point, he argues: “In June it was over and in July we’re back. In August it was over. And in September we were back. In October it’s over. And in November we’ll probably be back.”
Yet the analysis is framed against a frank acknowledgment of Dogecoin’s stalled cycle. “We’ve been making almost two Dogecoin videos… it’s been two years now and the price hasn’t done anything,” he said. “Three years ago Dogecoin was 16 cents and now it is 18 cents… the price of Dogecoin has not changed in almost three years.”
Related reading
The stagnation is why he sees this fourth year of the four-year cycle as a make-or-break. If the channel fails or, conversely, if the market recovers but cannot break out in December, he expects another “return”: “If we make it to December and we still haven’t gotten out of the channel, then it will turn bearish again and we will go on a tour again.”
Tactically, he expects another test of support at the weekend before attempting a reversal. “We’ll probably test it again this weekend. We’ll probably see another sell-off,” he said. “If we can make a higher low, that would confirm the bottom has been reached and we could see a reversal higher.”
He pins the key checkpoint with unusual clarity on October 23 – “X marks the spot” – and claims we are “bearish” until then. The upward roadmap, if support holds, would be a return to the top of the channel by the end of November, in line with previous monthly recoveries: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we are back at the top of the channel by the end of November.”
He concluded: “It won’t take that long for Dogecoin to really recover,” emphasizing that the coin is capable of sharp mean reversions once its structure is respected. “But we need to hold the bottom of the channel before we can talk about a turning point.”
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.183.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com