Bitcoin’s recent price action has turned sharply bearish after the price fell below $110,000, a level that previously served as a strong base for buyers. This breakdown suggests that bullish momentum is losing steam, with traders starting to lock in their gains after weeks of steady gains.
The current correction follows several failed attempts to maintain resistance above $116,000. At the time of writing, BTC is trading just below $109,000, marking a notable shift in short-term sentiment. The move puts Bitcoin at risk of testing lower support zones as the broader market cools after a prolonged rally.
Technical analysis: what the charts reveal
The 4-hour and daily charts indicate a clear rejection from the resistance zone at $116,000, followed by a consistent drop in trading volume – often a harbinger of a trend reversal.
- Moving Averages: The 20-day moving average has leveled off near $111,000, while the 50-day MA is rising toward $107,500. A cross below this level could confirm short-term weakness.
- RSI: The Relative Strength Index has fallen below 50, indicating that momentum is now in favor of sellers.
- CMF (Chaikin Money Flow): The CMF has turned negative, indicating outflows from large portfolios and short-term risk reduction.
The chart is now forming a descending channel, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend unless BTC recovers the lost zone quickly.
Important levels to watch
| Zone | Interest |
| $110,000 – $111,000 | Broken support; now an immediate resistance zone |
| $108,000 – $104,000 | Short-term demand zone where buyers can re-emerge |
| $100,000 – $95,000 | Major structural support and potential correction target |
| $116,000 | Higher resistance to invalidate the bearish setup |
If Bitcoin fails to regain $110,000 on a daily close, the chance of a retest of $104,000 – $100,000 increases significantly.
Insights into the chain and market sentiment
On-chain data reflect a slight cooling of accumulation activity. Whale portfolio inflows to exchanges have increased modestly over the past 24 hours, suggesting near-term distribution. Meanwhile, interest rates for derivative financing are neutral, implying that traders are not overly leveraged on either side.
Overall sentiment remains cautiously bearish, with traders keeping their eyes on the next major liquidity zone around $100,000 – a level that aligns with Bitcoin’s long-term upward trendline from mid-2024.
Scenario outlook and price targets
Bearish scenarioIf selling pressure remains below $108,000, Bitcoin could extend its near-term decline to $104,000. A break below that level reveals $100,000 – $95,000 as the next major downside target.
Bullish reversal scenario: A strong rebound that reclaims $110,000 followed by a close above $112,500 could neutralize the bearish structure. In that case, BTC could make another attempt towards $116,000-$120,000.
Neutral/range-based setupBTC could consolidate between $104,000 and $111,000 before choosing its next direction, especially if macro data or ETF flows remain calm.
Final thoughts
Bitcoin’s break below $110,000 marks a crucial shift in the short-term structure, handing temporary control to the bears. The technicals indicate a cool-down phase where BTC could revisit deeper supports around $104,000-$100,000 before buyers emerge again.
However, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as Bitcoin remains above its macro support at $95,000. A quick recovery of $110,000 would reverse this collapse and potentially reignite the rally towards $125,000.
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