The XRP price shows a complex pattern of consolidation and retracement for weeks. However, according to prominent market analyst Egrag Crypto, there is a crucial signal to watch out for that could determine whether the cryptocurrency’s bullish story remains intact or not. The expert’s analysis, shared on X’s social media, highlights that the behavior of XRP’s 3-day candles could soon determine the direction of his next big move.
XRP price integrity depends on the 3-day candle closing below $2
In his post on X, Eggrag Crypto explains the “measured movement analysis” for XRP, identifying a key technical formation in the form of a descending triangle which, based on its structure, points to a possible move towards $2.14. The attached chart shows XRP fluctuating between $2.40 and $2.60, with multiple retests of the same price level in recent months. Despite the short downside, Egrag Crypto suggests the structure is here to stay indicate consolidation within range.
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The analyst reiterates that $2.65 remains a crucial price target for XRP. If the cryptocurrency breaks and stays above, he predicts that this is possible regain upward momentumpotentially paving the way for renewed bullish sentiment. However, the current level may not remain around $2.5 Exposing XRP to deeper retracementsespecially if 3-day candles start closing below the $2.00 to $1.91 range.
Egrag Crypto warns that this particular candle behavior is concerning as it could indicate a structural collapse in the XRP market cycle. It could also negate its bullish thesis, which suggests the recent peak could have been around $3.65 the cycle top.
Furthermore, the analyst’s chart shows that XRP’s price action is above 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)that serves as a long-term support level. Should XRP maintain its position above this moving average, Egrag Crypto claims that the cryptocurrency’s bullish stance remains valid. He noted that the next 60 to 90 days are expected to be crucial as XRP’s response around the levels mentioned above could determine the trajectory of the rest of the year.
XRP has a 57% chance of breaking through to a new ATH
In a separate analysis, Eggrag Crypto introduced a 57% to 43% probability model, which shares its broader perspective on XRP’s potential near-term price direction. He stated that the chance of this happening is 57% XRP could hit a new all-time high in the coming months. He also sees a 43% chance that the cryptocurrency could drop significantly, offering traders a new opportunity to accumulate it at a price below $1.
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Although the near-term probability of XRP’s price favors a more bullish outcome, the bearish case remains plausible given its protracted nature macroeconomic uncertainty and the overall volatility of the crypto market. Egrag Crypto notes that he is personally positioning himself towards the bullish scenario, tuning his expectations to the 57% chance of a major price breakout.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com