- Sales pressure of long -term holders and whales have filled BTC above $ 100k.
- Nevertheless, VC Chamath Palihapitiya was courageously projected that BTC could reach $ 500K in October.
Is Bitcoin [BTC] Price is suppressed?
This has been the question in Crypto Twitter, because members have difficulty understanding how the price has remained reached at $ 100k $ 110k despite massive ETF intake and treasury rifzij.
In Q2 alone, ETF inflow rose to nearly $ 11 billion, while Metaplanet, strategy, twenty -one capital and other Treasury companies announced millions and billions of BTC purchases.
Source: Glassnode
In fact, last week alone, ETFs bought 20.7k BTC or approx 12.6% of the annual new bitcoin (mined) offer.
But what do other data on chains say about the divergence between this high demand and price?
Long -term holders still discharge
Charles Edwards, founder of Macro Hedge Fund Capriole Investment, explained the disconnection, connected to holders in the long term (LTH).
He stated”
“It is because Bitcoin OGs (long -term holders) since the launch in January 2024 on Wall St Dumpen and unload their positions.”
According to the attached graph, the holders of 6 months (blue line) have been absorbed (spiked) in the past two months, while LTH has dumped (+2 years holders, red line).
However, others claimed that some massive purchases are made via OTC (over the counter) desks.
As a result, they rarely reflect on traditional order books or CEXS (centralized fairs). This reduces the potential impact of such movements on the price, noted TXMC transactions.
“An increasing amount of older coins is being reactivated, but they are not in the order books. They are handled OTC to deliver large buyers such as the ETFs, and these promotions do not affect the price in the same way.”
Nevertheless, the delivery at OTC agencies and reserves have on centralized fairs drop 20-30% since 2024. This could set up BTC for a pinch higher.
However, discharging LTH seemed plausible. Earlier in June, analyst Willy Woo stated That those with 10k-100k BTC and those BTC bought for $ 0- $ 800 since 2017 dumped.
“The big whales> 10k BTC sell since 2017.” They are stupid! ” Most of those coins were bought between $ 0- $ 700 and held 8-16 years.
Moreover, the number of whales by more than 1K BTC has been taken from the end of May, from 2,114 to 2,008, before he recovered in the last week of June. This change coincided in May with the peak of $ 111k, which underlined the whale pressure.
Source: Glassnode
In fact also the interest in the retail trade fell by 10% During this period, the BTC -Breakout -Front view is further closed. Still VC Chamath Palihapitiya projected BTC could hit $ 500K by October, with reference to a historic post -defending rally pattern.