- Bitcoin came in on a key resistance on the MVRV Z-score, a turning point in previous cycles.
- Will this resistance close the rally?
The fear and greed index still needs to flash ‘extreme greed’.
It is a zone that historically matches Bitcoin [BTC] Cycle tops. In the past three all time, this sentiment peak coincided with tightening of liquidity and supply consolidation, which pushed BTC into overheated circumstances.
So, does the current absence of euphoria suggest that the market is still over fuel? Possible. But in combination with Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score now presses against one Critical resistanceIt can indicate that the market is approaching a bending point.
For context, the MVRV Z-score compares the market value of Bitcoin with the average cost-based chain. When the score is high, it means that holders are on large non -realized profits. That is usually fine, until enough of them decides to take a profit.
Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Of course, so far the Z-score remains far below the red zone that marks historic macro tops, where the spread between market capitalization and the realized cap extends to overheated territory. But here the structure breaks.
Even after Bitcoin had hit six digits and had registered two new all-time highlights, the Z-score remained relatively muted. No sign From extreme overload. And yet the market fell, with pullbacks of more than 20%.
According to Ambcrypto, this points to a critical shift, which suggests that a new market variable is involved.
Low euphoria, high risk: a new type of bitcoin -top?
Fomo took over in earlier rallies. In turn, the Fear & Greed Index shot in ‘Extreme Greed’ and Bitcoin became vertical until the market dumped. This time? The index is still not nearly near euphoric level, and yet Bitcoin is struggling to start.
Why? Macro illness makes the market for taking speculative appetite and with margins under pressure, investors seem to be more inclined to risk and lock profit.
Bitcoin is only about 7% above the cost basis of the short -term holders at $ 98,000. Without a confirmed structural soil and volatility still anchored to the macro risk, FOMO hangs on a wire.
Source: Glassnode
If that thread breaks? Well, Bitcoin could stare the most subtle market top so far.